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Daily Chartbook #160

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #160

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Mar 15
24
2
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Daily Chartbook #160

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Rapid re-tightening (I). "Outside the Lehman and Covid crises, conditions have never tightened faster."

Image
Bloomberg via @thetranscript

2. Rapid re-tightening (II). Financial conditions are "as tight as they ever were last year."

John Authers

3. Bank deposit betas. "Competition for [bank] deposits is likely to increase, implying higher rates...which would pressure Net Interest Margins...it’s no surprise that the chart below, depicting deposit betas, was one of the most-requested charts by our clients this past week."

Image
Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

4. Bank resiliency. "Overall, US banks are well positioned for a recession."

MRB Partners via Daily Shot

5. Small biz. "Inflation was once again most important problem for small businesses in February."

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NFIB via @lizannsonders

6. CPI (I).  Inflation rose 0.4% in February, down from 0.5% in January and in line with market estimates.

Zero Hedge

7. CPI (II). Annual inflation slowed to 6%, the lowest since September 2021.

Zero Hedge

8. CPI (III). "Powell’s ‘supercore’ CPI ex-energy, food & shelter & his wage proxy) rose from 0.36% to 0.5% MoM & FELL to 6.1% to 6.2% YoY."

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@dimartinobooth

9. Wages vs. inflation. "This is the 23rd straight month where Americans cost of living has outpaced their wage growth with real average hourly earnings down 1.3% YoY."

Zero Hedge

10. Wages vs. core- services inflation. "If wage increases continue to slow - the trend is pretty clear - core services inflation will follow."

Image
@ianshepherdson


11. Cuts vs. inflation vs. unemployment. "As the market ponders a Fed cut, here’s a look where core US inflation and unemployment were 'at the time of the first cut in each cycle over the last 70 years.'"

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Deutsche Bank via @carlquintanilla

12. Fed vs. credit regimes matrix. "The Fed easing + credit tightening regime has been the weakest environment for equities."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

13. Equities vs. rates volatility. "The VIX has picked up on the back of financial risks, but it is still low relative to rates vol."

MOVE vs VIX
Goldman Sachs via TME

14. Bond volatility. "MOVE index of bond vol at the highest since ~2009."

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@kgreifeld

15. Bond liquidity. "10 year bond futures DV01 liquidity is 19K. This is the lowest since March 23rd, 2020."

Zero Hedge

16. Equity liquidity. "S&P 500 futures liquidity is $2.0M. This is the lowest level since March 30th, 2020."

Zero Hedge

17. Stocks vs. gold. "US large cap stocks are trading at a premium relative to gold on a long run basis, at 2.0x now versus the 1975 – present average of 1.6x."

Stocks / Gold
Data Trek via TME

18. Rush to safety. Safe havens saw "the biggest cumulative 3 day sigma move ever."

Safe haven extremes
Barclays via TME

19. Risky vs. safe flows. Flows into safe assets relative to risky ones are at 2022 extremes.

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Goldman Sachs via @wallstjesus

20. Investor flows. "Flight to safety persists as government bonds have seen strong inflows of late (accounting for 61% of all ETF inflows on 3m basis) ... U.S. equity funds have only made up 11% of inflows ."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

21. Exposure plans. Investors’ plans to increase exposure to equities ticked down further.

Nobody plans to buy equities
JPMorgan via TME

22. Global positioning. "GS Prime global long/short ratio fell to a new multi-year low. Now at 171.6% lowest level since early 2016."

Goldman Sachs via TME

23. Growth flows. "Investors piled into growth yesterday…[Bloomberg's] Pure Growth portfolio saw largest jump relative to Pure Value portfolio since June 2022."

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@lizannsonders

24. Tech bears. "Small and big speculators keep on increasing bearish bets on tech."

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@theshortbear

25. Margins under pressure (I). "Increased costs have outpaced S&P 500 revenue growth, which is not good news."

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Morgan Stanley via @isabelnet_sa

26. Margins under pressure (II). "Estimate operating margins continue to fall as inflation rises and economic demand slows."

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Morgan Stanley via @isabelnet_sa, @lanceroberts

27. S&P correlation. "Stocks in the S&P 500 are moving together."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

28. Bear market finale. "Buy staples, sell tech for the bear market finale."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

29. Tactical breadth indicator. And finally, “the percentage of SPX stocks above 10-day MAs has hit oversold levels”.

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #160

www.dailychartbook.com
2 Comments
The Bearull
Writes The Bearull
Mar 15Liked by Daily Chartbook

24 hasn’t been updated since 2/14 bc COT report has updated since then

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