Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #157

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #157

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Mar 10
25
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #157

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.


1. Active listings. "Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, but the gain was the lowest we’ve seen since December."

Realtor.com via Calculated Risk

2. Resilient households. "Despite widespread concerns, we see little evidence of disproportionate financial strain among lower-income HHs. In fact, they are now outpacing upper-income HHs in y/y spending growth in several categories."

Image
BofA via @carlquintanilla

3. Card spending growth. "Total card spending growth was solid in Feb, as a big increase in services spending offset a drop in goods spending."

Image
BofA via @mikezaccardi

4. Multivariate core. "Due to revised seasonal factors, a model of underlying trend inflation produced by the New York Fed (the “multivariate core”) ticked up to 4.9% in January after initially reported to have been around 3.7% at the end of 2022 (December was revised to 4.8%)."

Image
NY Fed via @nicktimiraos

5. Hard vs. soft data. "Hard economic data has been surprising to the upside relative to soft economic data."

Image
@gameoftrades_

6. Challenger cuts (I). "Job cut announcements from [Challenger Gray] +410% year/year in February, slightly lower than +440% in January … most cuts in tech sector; health care/products sector in second."

Image
Challenger Gray via @lizannsonders

7. Challenger cuts (II). "Technology companies cut the most jobs last month with 21,387, 28% of all cuts announced in February."

Image
Challenger Gray via @samro

8. Jobless claims. "Initial jobless claims which jumped from 190k to 211k last week (above the 195k exp), the highest since December (but still extremely low historically). Continuing claims also rose to 1.718mm (near cycle highs) and well above the 1.66mm expected."

Zero Hedge

9. Divergence. There is still a wide divergence between Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims.

Image
@nicholastreece

10. NFP outlook (I). "The ongoing decline in US job openings on a year-over-year basis suggests that tomorrow's update on nonfarm private payrolls for Feb will shift down on an annual basis."

Image
@jpicerno


11. NFP outlook (II). "Estimates range from a low of 100k to a high of 325k. Economists have underestimated the actual payrolls release a record ten months in a row and 12 of the last 13 months."

Image
@biancoresearch

12. HY vs. IG. "Fewer and fewer high yield bonds are being traded, currently at the lowest levels in decades relative to IG."

Image
Torsten Sløk

13. Yield gap. "Stocks are their least attractive relative to bonds since the end of the crisis year 2009."

John Authers

14. Retail options. "Retail as a % of options trading has moved higher lately, but the longer term trend stays intact."

JPMorgan via TME

15. Volatility panic."From hated to must have in a few hours. Massive moves in VIX and VVIX today causing a lot of p/l pain."

The Market Ear

16. AAII sentiment. "Latest AAII survey shows little change from last week. Bulls rather low, bears slightly excited."

What about sentiment?
AAII via TME

17. Active manager exposure. "NAAIM Exposure up to 60 now (from 47). Tuesday did not deter the bulls."

Image
NAAIM via @hmeisler

18. Equity ETF flows. "60-day flows double dip again while 12M flows back to lows."

JPMorgan via TME

19. CTA bond exposure. "CTAs overall allocation to bonds is in the 5th percentile."

Image
Deutsche Bank via @isabelnet_sa

20. Mutual fund beta. "Mutual funds’ beta to the S&P 500 continues to sink. Many funds have been overweight in defensive shares while maintaining larger-than-normal cash levels."

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

21. Buybacks (I). "Announced buybacks have surged over the last few weeks, but actual repurchases have stalled."

Image
Deutsche Bank via @isabelnet_sa, @lanceroberts

22. Buybacks (II). "Stock repurchases were down 20% in the fourth quarter, with the pace decelerating since the first quarter of last year."

Bloomberg

23. Secondary offerings. "Over the past 10 days alone, US companies have raised more than $6 billion in equity sales, their biggest windfall in more than a year."

relates to Companies Fold on High Valuations, Sparking Flood of Stock Sales
Bloomberg

24. Rich S&P P/E. "The S&P 500 trades rich to its 10-year average PE multiple (17.5x vs. 17.2x), but not solely due to Big Tech valuations. Non-Tech sectors like Staples, Health Care and Industrials also have higher multiples than their long-run averages."

Image
@datatrekmb

25. Seasonality. "Positive Q1 seasonality may prompt more FOMO....biggest seasonal month upcoming."

Barclays via TME

26. Equities vs. economy. "Equities can perform really well when the economy performs really badly."

Barclays via TME

27. Bank test. And finally, “worst day for banks since June 2020. A big down day like this tends to have follow through.”

Image
@ukarlewitz

Thanks for reading!

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #157

www.dailychartbook.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing