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Daily Chartbook #155

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #155

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Mar 8
30
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Daily Chartbook #155

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Global supply chain. The NY Fed's Global Supply Chain index fell to a negative reading in February for the first time since August 2019.

Reuters Graphics
NY Fed via Reuters

2. Used cars. "Wholesale used vehicle prices (mix, mileage & seasonally adjusted) increased 4.3% MoM and -7% YoY in February. MoM increase was the largest increase for February since 2009."

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Manheim via @thetranscript

3. Consumer credit. "In January, consumer credit rose just $14.8BN, a modest increase from last month's downward revised $10.7BN, but a huge miss to the median consensus estimate of $25.4BN."

Zero Hedge

4. Consumer outlook. "Consumers’ confidence in the economy and their own household finances continues to improve .. 45% (vs. 41% last month) of respondents expect their situation to get better, which is the most optimistic reading for that metric since summer 2021."

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Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

5. Gloomy consumers. "Share of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to get better in the next 12 months at lowest on record in monthly survey."

Fannie Mae via Bloomberg

6. Student loans. "Economists and market participants are underestimating the headwinds that are going to be created by borrowers having to start paying off student loans once again."

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Wolfe via @carlquintanilla

7. Q1 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1 GDP growth is now 2%, down from 2.3% on March 3.

Atlanta Fed

8. Unemployment rate changes. "Given discussion in Powell’s hearing about 1% increase in unemployment rate, here are rolling 12-month changes (orange) in unemployment rate back to 1940s, with recessions."

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@lizannsonders

9. FOMC odds. "Powell just finished, and here is the updated probability that the Fed will hike 50 next week."

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@biancoresearch

10. Deep inversion. "The 2yr/10yr yield curve is now 100 basis points inverted, for the first time since September 1981."

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@johnauthers


11. US02Y. "The 2-year Treasury note yield surpasses 5% for the first time in 15 years."

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@gregdaco

12. Junk bond bears. "$HYG short interest currently 52%, close to record highs."

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@kgreifeld

13. Treasury shorts. "Treasury market bearish bets are hitting new extremes."

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

14. Credit/equities spread. "The spread between BBB rated dollar-denominated corporate debt and the earnings available on the S&P 500 Index of stocks is now above zero for the first time since the global financial crisis."

Ven Ram via Zero Hedge

15. Crude oil optimism. "Managed Money short % reflecting extreme optimism from HF and CTAs. Now at levels last observed in 2018."

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@warrenpies

16. SPX correlations. "Correlations have continued to move lower for S&P 500 members as market has broadly advanced over past few months."

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@lizannsonders

17. Retail vs. 0DTE. "Retail participation in options trading has moved lower, while 0DTE options as total percentage of volume has risen during the same time."

Retail and 0DTE
JPMorgan via TME

18. Risk on/off. "Sentiment today is more bearish than it was 1 month and 3 months ago."

Bearish sentiment
Goldman Sachs via TME

19. Flight to safety. "Risky vs. safe assets fund flows. 4 weeks rolling flows, USD bn."

EPFR via TME

20. Investor ETF flows. "Safety still a dominant theme as government and aggregate bond funds are making up 2/3 of past month's ETF inflows ... investments grade corporate ETFs also saw a bump in interest (along with TIPS)."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

21. Discretionary vs. systematic positioning. "Systematic equity positioning is on the rise as discretionary is rather flat recently."

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Deutsche Bank via @mayhem4markets

22. CTAs equity exposure. "They shaved off some during the move lower, but overall levels are rather long these days."

Deutsche Bank via TME

23. Tech insiders. "Tech company insiders buying picks up while insider selling remains very low."

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@jaykaeppel

24. Exposure plans. New low in the share of respondents with plans to increase equity exposure.

JPMorgan via TME

25. Foreign revenues. Companies with significant foreign revenue exposure are outperforming.

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SPDJI via @samro

26. Bottom 450 vs. top 50. "Bottom 450 S&P stocks remain cheap vs. top 50 stocks."

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

27. Fwd P/E expansion (I). "Current multiple expansion in US stocks seem premature as P/Es of both the tech-heavy cohort known as FAAMG as well as the non-FAAMG stocks have returned to the highs reached when the current bear market began. This expansion has not come from falling earnings."

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Morgan Stanley

28. Fwd P/E expansion (II). "Rolling 60d change in forward P/E for largest/most popular growth stocks has been quite something ... gain of nearly 9 points in multiple is among most aggressive move over past handful of years."

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@lizannsonders

29. Sector EPS estimates vs. performance. And finally, “sectors where analysts are cutting 2023 earnings estimates more than the S&P 500 as whole are underperforming those where estimates have proven more resilient.”

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@datatrekmb

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #155

www.dailychartbook.com
2 Comments
Gordon | Oak Investing
Writes The Acorn by Oak Investing
Mar 8Liked by Daily Chartbook

Great charts today 👏📈

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Wriggles
Mar 8

My dailychartbook page views never have the ♥️ button G-spot? So here is my valentine. Wonder how many an Intertube adventure started with an intriguing chart?

#20 looks like volcanic forces are in play deep within the roiling bowels of the Once and Future Great Moderation. Like tectonic plates of Finance and Economics are colliding and pushing up mountains. Himalayas of Cash. Verily. Emergence happens. Every time.

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