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Daily Chartbook #152
Catch up on the day in 28 charts
Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Oil demand. "US total petroleum demand surged in 2022 to an annual average of 20.3 million barrels a day, only 200,000 barrels a day below its pre-pandemic level in 2019."
2. China re-opening. "China's great re-opening is well underway."
3. Global manufacturing PMI. "After 6 months of decline, manufacturing output returned to growth in Feb."
4. Job postings. "Looking at [Indeed] job postings by sector, high-skilled vacancies have been harder to fill and remain posted on site for longer ... postings for bottom ten sectors (all in blue) have eased over past six months."
5. Jobless claims. "Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 last week to 190,000, while the 4 week moving average increased 1,750 to 193,000. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, increased 5,000 to 1,655,000."
6. Labor costs up, productivity down (I). "Revisions for 4Q22: unit labor costs up to +3.2% (q/q ann.) vs. +1.6% est. & +1.1% prior … productivity down to +1.7% vs. +2.5% est. & +3% prior."
7. Labor costs up, productivity down (II). “The FOUR consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in productivity is first such instance since 1974. Productivity growth remains depressed, down 1.8% y/y in Q4 2022, which is exacerbating the compensation pressures & pushing up unit labor costs, up 6.3% y/y.”
8. Bank profits. "Profit across the banking industry fell 6% in 2022 compared with the previous year...Still, the $263 billion in profit was the biggest of any year except 2021."
9. Bank provisions. "Banks stashed away $51.6 billion for potential loan losses in 2022, after releasing $31 billion in provisions the previous year."
10. Hot data. "Our overall view is still more consistent with slow disinflation .. But there are clear risks of more hawkish news in the busy lead-up to the March FOMC, particularly if the data pushes the Fed to flag the option of a return to larger rate hikes more clearly."
11. Last hike to first ease. "Historically, the Federal Reserve has tended to wait only three months between its last hike and its first cut."
12. Peak rate. "Traders are now pricing in a 5.5% fed funds rate by September."
13. Real yields. "Nominal yields are rising again, but in real terms, they are still negative, especially short-term rates vs. super core and headline. The Fed is barely restrictive."
14. Average stock volatility. "The average SPX stock is 1.8X more volatile than the SPX. Picking stocks is becoming important again."
15. Small-cap flows. Investors have added a net $4.2 billion to small-cap mutual funds and ETFs while pulling $17.4 billion from large-cap funds.
16. Hedge fund flows. "Hedge funds have continued buying single stocks and offsetting that with selling macro products."
17. AAII bulls vs. bears. "Just three weeks removed from the most bulls in over a year, the AAII survey now shows nearly twice as many bears as bulls."
18. NAAIM. Active manager "exposure 47, down from 85."
19. Long/short. "The long/short ratio for the overall Goldman Prime hedge fund book is still at an extreme. Well below the 10th percentile line."
20. CTA positioning. "Trading desk buy orders are on hold until payrolls. No one is willing to ‘step’ into ‘another hawkish datapoint.’ .. I still think that equities are heading lower, I am targeting ~$3800, but a large part of the positioning dynamic problem is starting to heal."
21. Systematic positioning. "Exuberance in a single chart."
22. SPX valuations. By most metrics, the S&P 500 is not cheap.
23. Asset class valuations. "Treasurys cheapest, US growth most expensive."
24. Investor performance. "The table depicts the performance of various types of investors in % as of 27th February 2023."
25. Buybacks. "Buybacks should not see a big uptick this year given the subdued expectations on profit growth."
26. GAAP vs. non-GAAP. The 19% gap between GAAP EPS and adjusted EPS is slightly above the 30-year average of 17%.
27. World EPS. "Leading indicators anticipate a contraction of about 5% in 2023, short of consensus expectations of 0.4% growth -expect downgrade."
28. Seasonality. And finally, “March has been the fourth strongest month as measured by the percentage of positive S&P 500 Index monthly returns.”
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