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Daily Chartbook #150

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #150

Catch up on the day in 28 charts

Daily Chartbook
Mar 1
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Daily Chartbook #150

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

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1. Home sales. "Using April 2020 as a starting point, only existing home sales (orange) are down; new (white) and pending (blue) sales have managed to climb after falling dramatically over past couple years."

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@lizannsonders

2. Cash buyers. "The share of all-cash deals rose to the highest since 2013 last year, while institutional investors, who usually account for many cash sales, retreated."

Bloomberg

3. Homebuilder orders. "Analysts seem optimistic on a rebound in homebuilder order volumes over the next few quarters."

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@m_mcdonough

4. House price index. "December FHFA House Price Index -0.1% m/m vs. -0.2% est. & -0.1% prior … second consecutive monthly contraction."

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@lizannsonders

5. Case-Shiller (I). "National home prices fell for 6 straight months up to December dropping more than expected (-0.51% MoM vs -0.40% MoM exp). This slowed the annual growth of prices to the weakest since July 2020."

Zero Hedge

6. Case-Shiller (II). "The headline national home price index is at its lowest since March 2022."

Zero Hedge

7. Q1 GDP. "We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.8% (qoq ar)."

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Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

8. Consumer confidence. "The actual print disappointed significantly (102.9 vs 108.5 exp), hurt by a big drop in Expectations (from a revised 76.0 to 69.7) while the Present Situation continued to rise (from 151.1 to 152.8)."

Zero Hedge

9. Labor market tightness. "Labor Market Differential surged 4.5pts in February, the third consecutive monthly increase, to 41.5, the highest level since April 2022. This supports a low unemployment rate."

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@renmacllc

10. Retail inventories. "Retail advance inventories were $743.1B in January 2023, up .3%* from December 2022 (seasonally adjusted)."

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@uscensusbureau


11. Imports/exports. "US merchandise trade deficit widened $1.3bn to $91.5bn in Jan 23."

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@gregdaco

12. Chicago PMI. Chicago's Business Barometer contracted for the sixth straight month.

ISM

13. Richmond manufacturing. The index "fell to -16 vs. -5 est. & -11 prior; new orders stuck in deep contraction, shipments sank, capex fell further into contraction, and employment fell further into contraction (now at lowest since May 2020)."

Image
@lizannsonders

14. Story counts. Stories have gone from referencing "soft landing" to "no landing".

JPMorgan via TME

15. Rate cycle. "Our team now sees the Fed delivering the first rate cut in March 2024 (vs. December 2023 previously) and cutting rates at a slower pace of one 25bp cut each quarter."

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Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

16. Cash yields. "Cash [six-month T-bills] pays more than 60/40 portfolios for first time since 2021."

Cash Is King | 60/40 portfolio yields less than six-month T-bills
Bloomberg

17. ETF flows. "Investors going back into government bond ETFs, with inflows reaching >$5.6 billion over past week ... on 1m basis, they've made up >1/3 of all inflows (aggregate bond funds also remain popular)."

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Arbor Data via @lizannsonders

18. Systematic positioning. "Systematic equity positioning is at the same levels where we saw prior bear market rallies lose momentum."

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Goldman Sachs via @mayhem4markets

19. Equity downsizing. "Macro hedge funds have sold some equity exposure, which could help to explain (part of) the sluggish recent SPX performance."

Nomura via TME

20. CTA scenarios. "CTAs have sold longs over past weeks, but have more to sell. Latest projections via GS: 1 week scenario: flat sell $27bn, up sell $8bn, down sell $67bn...1 month scenario: flat sell $41bn, up buy $34bn, down sell $216bn."

Goldman Sachs via TME

21. Exposure plans. "The crowd continues to 'fade' this, but this has been a long term trend."

JPMorgan via TME

22. Fintwit. “52wk high in Goldman's Twitter sentiment index.”

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Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

23. TTM negative returns. "% of ETFs with negative returns over trailing 12M. Equities and bonds off the worst levels but still lingering at around 75%. Commodity losses shooting up."

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@psarofagis

24. Equity market valuations. "Even with the equity market down over 17% from its highs, these measures [CAPE, P/S, Tobin's Q, stock market-to-GDP ratio] remain in the top 85-90% of all their readings."

Simon White via Zero Hedge

25. Earnings revisions. "1-month revision to I/B/E/S consensus earnings. MSCI World sectors, other global equity index aggregates."

IBES via TME

26. Operational efficiency. "Companies with high operational efficiency seem to be performing well in this environment."

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Morgan Stanley via @mayhem4markets

27. Leading indicators vs. earnings. "The spread between forecast and the consensus NTM EPS is as wide as ever and suggests the fat pitch is that EPS has a long way to fall and that will likely take several more months, if not quarters. This is our primary argument for why this bear market is incomplete."

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Morgan Stanley via @lanceroberts

28. Volatility. And finally, across asset classes, rates volatility remains the most stressed.

Soc Gen via TME

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #150

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
Chris
Mar 1Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you.

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