Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #149

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #149

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Feb 28
34
1
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #149

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Pending home sales. Pending sales topped analysts’ estimates, jumping 8.1% in January for the biggest monthly gain since June. Year-over-year sales are down 22%.

US Pending Home Sales Surge, Topping All Estimates | The January increase was the biggest monthly advance since June 2020
Bloomberg

2. Global freight. "Spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast" have "returned to pre-Covid levels…Short-term prices for containers from Europe to the US East Coast are still more than double what they were in late-2019".

Bloomberg

3. US trucking. The cost to ship goods by truck in the US is still well above pre-pandemic levels. From Craig Fuller: "This largely includes contract rates and fuel. Contract rates will continue to deflate through the year".

Image
Bloomberg + @freightalley

4. Bottlenecks. "The GS Weekly Bottleneck Index is back early 2020 levels".

Image
Goldman Sachs via @ayeshatariq

5. Durable goods (I). Orders fell by 4.5% in January which was worse than expected and the biggest drop since April 2020.

Zero Hedge

6. Durable goods (II). "Core Durable Goods (ex-Transports) jumped 0.7% MoM (+0.1% exp) - biggest jump since March 2022 (but YoY Core is up just 1.6%)".

Zero Hedge

7. Dallas manufacturing. "Index down to -13.5 vs. -9.3 est. & -8.4 prior; new orders fell further into contraction; prices paid ticked higher alongside wages/workweek; production dipped into contraction; employment fell into contraction for 1st time since June ‘20".

Image
@lizannsonders

8. Q1 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for GDP growth in Q1 is now 2.8%, up from 2.7% on Friday.

Image
@atlantafed

9. Recession probabilities. "57% chance of recession in the next 12 months implied by the near-term forward spread. It was 72% last month. Hard to know whether it pushed the likelihood out beyond 12 months, or reduced odds all together".

Image
@lizyoungstrat

10. Fed funds odds. "Futures market continues to price in relatively high odds of 25-basis-points rate hikes at each of the next three FOMC meetings".

Image
@jpicerno


11. TARA. "$SHV is seeing significant inflows as shorter duration exposure becomes more attractive in this post-TINA inverted yield curve and rising rate environment".

Image
Bloomberg via @mayhem4markets

12. Bonds' round trip. "The record-breaking global bond market rally since the start of the year has fizzled out…as investors reverse their views on the likely future path of interest rate rises".

Line chart of Bloomberg aggregate index of  high-grade government and corporate bonds  showing Global bonds' round trip at the start of 2023
FT

13. HY outflows. "HY fund flows have witnessed their third worst week on record".

JPMorgan via TME

14. Cumulative inflows. "Over the past year, investors have flocked to cash and sold stocks and bonds".

Image
BofA via @lanceroberts

15. Sector rotation. "Hedge funds have been buying US Info Tech and selling US Financials for 7 consecutive weeks".

Goldman Sachs via TME

16. Equity allocations. "While equity allocations have come down, they remain well above average, and far above what would be expected in a capitulatory bear market".

Image
BofA via @lanceroberts

17. Fund equity exposure. "Fund exposure to the equity market remains low but is increasing".

Goldman Sachs via TME

18. Consolidated equity positioning. "Aggregate equity positioning saw its biggest weekly decline in over three months".

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

19. CTA equity positioning. Meanwhile, "CTAs continue to boost their exposure".

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

20. Stock positioning. Goldman's sentiment indicator is slightly negative.

Image
Goldman Sachs via Isabelnet

21. VIX call options (I). February has seen more VIX call options than any month since March 2020.

WSJ

22. VIX call options (II). Which is "signaling persistent concerns about stock market downside risks".

Simon White via Daily Shot

23. High risk. "Investors who think stocks are attractive at current prices need to assume the NTM earnings cuts are done and will start to rise again in the next few months....The negative operating leverage cycle is alive and well and will overwhelm any economic scenario (soft, hard or no landing) over the next 6 months".

Mike Wilson (MS) via TME

24. Buybacks. "Stock buybacks by companies in the S&P 500 are projected to top $1 trillion in 2023 for the first time in a calendar year".

WSJ

25. Capital costs (I). "Cost of capital has increased for borrowers at the fastest pace in over 40 years".

JPMorgan via TME

26. Capital costs (II). "Corporates are concerned with the cost of capital".

JPMorgan via TME

27. Revenue vs. earnings. "Over the past 30Y, this is the first time consensus is calling for earnings compression out of the gate. In addition, this is a relatively rare instance of investors getting revenue growth at the expense of earnings".

Jefferies via TME

28. GAAP gap. "For the 59% of stocks where adjusted EPS is higher than GAAP EPS, the size of the gap has grown to 30%".

Image
Goldman Sachs via @samro

29. Declining earning estimates (I). “US equities have gone nowhere since mid-November 2022"…but "Q4 2022 – Q4 2023 earnings projections have declined”.

image
Data Trek

30. Declining earning estimates (II). And finally, Barclays expects downward EPS revisions still have a long way to go.

Image
Barclays via @wallstjesus

Thanks for reading!

1
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #149

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
noninja
Feb 28Liked by Daily Chartbook

Great stuff

Expand full comment
Reply
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing