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Daily Chartbook #146

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Daily Chartbook #146

Catch up on the day in 28 charts

Daily Chartbook
Feb 23
28
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Daily Chartbook #146

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Mortgage demand. The purchase index "slumped more than 18% — the biggest drop since 2015 — to 147.1" and is now at its lowest level since 1995.

US Mortgage Applications for Home Purchases Drop Sharply | Gauge slumps more than 18% to lowest level since 1995 as rates climb
Bloomberg

2. G4 composite PMI. "Business activity rose across the four largest developed world economies (the "G4") in February, reviving after seven months of continual decline".

Output by sector across the G4
Chris Williamson, S&P Global

3. Jobs data. "Data just released by the BLS (QCEW) shows the US adding more than 1.3M jobs in the 3rd Quater of 2022 on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis. That's much stronger than current official Q3 CES estimates and suggests the Q2 QCEW weakness was a fluke".

Image
@josephpolitano

4. Real wages. "Morgan Stanley sees real wages turning positive next quarter".

Image
Morgan Stanley via @carlquintanilla

5. Real disposable income. "All income quintiles should show positive real disposable income growth in 2023".

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

6. Q1 GDP estimates (I). Capital Spectator’s “early median estimate for US GDP in Q1 skews slightly negative”.

The Capital Spectator

7. Q1 GDP estimates (II). Goldman boosted its “Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +1.4%”.

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

8. PCE forecast. "Forecasters boosted their projections for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge [PCE] for every quarter through the first half of next year".

Bloomberg

9. Inflation talk. "Inflation" word count for FOMC minutes including today.

Image
@zerohedge

10. Fixed income reversal. "Global bonds could erase all of their 2023 gains at this rate, signifying that concerns over inflation and central bank reactions are taking center stage again".

Image
Bloomberg via @mayhem4markets


11. Bond rotation. Investors are ditching riskier ETFs ($JNK, $LQD) for safer bets ($SPTS, $TLT).

Ditching Risky for Safe | Junk-debt fund posts big outflow as cash pours into short-term bond ETF
Bloomberg

12. ETF flows. "Active ETFs have captured 36% of net flows into ETF so far in 2023, a big jump from 14% last year, which was a record".

Image
@ericbalchunas

13. Retail optimism. "Dumb money has reached extreme highs in this market rally".

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@gameoftrades_

14. Hedge fund positioning. "HFs got ‘longer’ in January by covering index-level shorts … not by adding to single-name longs = they remain underinvested on the long side".

Morgan Stanley via TME

15. CTAs & equities. "CTAs now have over $200B worth of exposure that they're likely to sell into recent weakness as momentum fades".

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mayhem4markets

16. Short interest. "Short interest for the typical stock remains very low".

Fact Set via TME

17. Put hate. "We saw max put hate at recent market highs".

The Market Ear

18. Stock correlations (I). "The MSCI All Country World Index’s average pairwise correlation reading in January touched the lowest since October 2021, while the variance in one-month returns spiked to an above-average level, off pandemic".

Average Stock Correlations Are Falling
Bloomberg

19. Stock correlations (II). S&P 500 realized 3-month average stock correlation is falling.

Image
Goldman Sachs via @mikezaccardi

20. Megacaps vs. SPX (I). "EV/sales multiple for mega-cap tech is still above historical average".

Goldman Sachs via TME

21. Megacaps vs. SPX (II). "2010-2021 annualized sales of 18% vs. 5%; forecast 2021-24 gap is 8% vs. 7%".

Goldman Sachs via TME

22. IPO struggle. "The IPO class of 2020/21 has struggled since going public".

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@chartrdaily

23. US M&A. Merger & acquisition activity increased by 5.8% in January while aggregate deal values fell by 28.8%.

01-the-us-mergers-and-acquisitions-market-index
Fact Set

24. Sales growth. "The latest earnings season revealed that sales were still expanding in a way that had not been seen in the three decades prior to the post-Covid rebound".

John Authers

25. Profit trends. "With exceptionally high profits versus trend, coupled with companies benefiting far more from higher nominal sales growth than Europe, for the Federal Reserve to pivot or indeed be successful, US corporates need to be far less profitable".

relates to When Above-Trend Earnings Are Not Good News
Soc Gen via John Authers

26. Profit margins. Goldman expects "S&P 500 ex. Energy margin will fall from 12.7% peak (2021) to 11.4% (2023)".

Goldman Sachs via TME

27. Revisions sentiment. "Current breadth of negative EPS revisions consistent with prior recessions".

Goldman Sachs via TME

28. Bear case. And finally, “in a hard landing, S&P 500 could fall by 34% to 3150”.

Goldman Sachs via TME

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #146

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
Chris
Feb 23Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thanks.

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