Daily Chartbook

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #143

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #143

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Daily Chartbook
Feb 17
23
Share this post

Daily Chartbook #143

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Housing starts & building permits (I). Housing starts fell 4.5% in January (5th straight monthly decline, longest streak since 2009) while building permits ticked up 0.1%.

Zero Hedge

2. Housing starts & building permits (II). Single-family and multi-family starts decreased 27.3% and 8.1% YoY, respectively.

Calculated Risk

3. Housing starts & building permits (III). "Single-family permits drop to just 718K saar, lowest since May 2020".

Image
@zerohedge

4. Mortgage rates. "The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.32%, the biggest weekly jump since October".

Image
WSJ  via @gunjanjs

5. Mortgage delinquencies. "Overall delinquencies increased in Q4 from a record low in Q3".

Calculated Risk

6. Loan standards. "Lending standards are tightening across the board - for both large and small firms. Higher rates create twice the pressure - loan interest payments go up; collateral valuations come down".

Image
BofA via @ayeshatariq

7. Household Debt & Credit (I). "Total household debt in the fourth quarter of 2022 rose by 2.4% or $394 billion, the largest nominal quarterly increase in twenty years, to a record $16.90 trillion".

Zero Hedge

8. Household Debt & Credit (II). "Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $88 billion in the fourth quarter and now stand at $4.4 trillion".

Zero Hedge

9. Household Debt & Credit (III). "The share of current debt becoming delinquent increased again in the fourth quarter for nearly all debt types".

Zero Hedge

10. Surprise. "Citi's US economic surprises index is its highest since April last year. Unequivocally strong data, excessively gloomy forecasts, or a bit of both?".

Image
@reutersjamie


11. Jobless claims. "Initial claims remained below 200,000 at 195,000, while the 4 week average increased very slightly to 189,500. Continuing claims increased to 1,696,000, the third highest number in over a year".

The Bonddad Blog

12. Temps vs payroll change. "Not really buying the whole ‘warm January’ theory to explain this last strong payrolls number. Pretty weak relationship here historically to the January temperature anomaly".

Image
@fernavid

13. PPI (I). "PPI came in hotter than expected, up 0.7% MoM, which pushed the YoY rise to +6.0% (down from +6.5% in December). That is the biggest MoM jump in the headline since June 2022, but lowest YoY print since March 2021".

Zero Hedge

14. PPI (II). Under the hood - "in short, it's not decelerating as fast as people hoped".

Image
@m_mcdonough

15. PPI (III). "The positive news is that the pipeline for inflation looks like it’s continuing to decline with intermediate demand inflation down to +4.71% YoY".

Zero Hedge

16. Philly manufacturing. "Philly Fed was a disaster, coming in at -24.3 vs -7.6 expectations. Last reading was -8.9. New orders index remained negative (!!!). Employment index declined, but remained positive. Expectations are tempered for growth over next six month period".

Image
Philly Fed via @mayhem4markets

17. Q1 GDP. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 moved up to 2.5% from 2.4%.

Image
@atlantafed

18. Profit margins (I). "Profit numbers – like so many pandemic datasets — are in more-or-less uncharted territory, still near multi-decade highs".

Bloomberg

19. Profit margins (II). However, record profit margins are narrowing. 

Bloomberg

20. Profit margins vs. employment. "Share of companies saying their profit margins narrowed in the last quarter was the highest in almost three years…for the first time in at least two years, more respondents said they expect payrolls to fall over the coming three months than to rise".

Bloomberg

21. Brent-WTI spread. "The premium of Europe's Brent crude oil to U.S. standard WTI has more than doubled to over $6 per barrel since the start of the year. Six dollars is sometimes cited by analysts as a critical level beyond which U.S. barrels begin flowing overseas".

WSJ

22. USD decline. "Our new model of exchange-rate drivers suggests expectations of a less hawkish Fed and more risk appetite from investors are the main drivers" behind the USD's drop since early November.

Image
@royebjorn

23. Maturity wall. "With $6.3 trillion of outstanding corporate bonds alone coming due by the end of 2025, many companies are seeking alternative ways to protect their balance sheets".

Image
Bloomberg via @jessfelder

24. Rapid repricing. "The bond market has gone from being much more dovish than the Fed in end January, to now expecting a higher terminal rate than the Fed's median dot for 2023.  Note there are still cuts priced into the 2H23, but much less (~20 bps vs. ~50 bps in Jan)".

Image
@camerondawson

25. NDX vs. US02Y. "There is a historical non-correlation between the Nasdaq and 2-Year Treasury yields. (Rising rates impact discount rate of earnings). The recent surge in tech stocks have ignored rising yeilds....for now".

Image
JPMorgan via @lanceroberts

26. Active money managers. NAAIM exposure ticked down.

Image
NAAIM via @hmeisler

27. AAI sentiment. "2nd week in a row with more bulls than bears on the AAII survey. While last year's pessimism was not more intense than what was seen in 2008-09, it was more persistent".

Image
@williedelwiche

28. Rotation. "Fund managers have been rotating into cyclical".

BofA via Daily Shot

29. Tech positioning. "Despite the recent buying activity, net positioning in Info Tech remains relatively low. Aggregate US Info Tech long/short ratio now stands at 2.2 in the 9th percentile vs. the past 5 years".

Goldman Sachs via TME

30. Tech short-covering. And finally, “the short covering in US Tech stocks from Jan 31st to Feb 15th is the second largest in magnitude over any 12-day period in the past decade and ranks in the 99.5th percentile”.

Image
Goldman Sachs via @zerohedge

Thanks for reading!

Share this post

Daily Chartbook #143

www.dailychartbook.com
Comments
TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Daily Chartbook
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing