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Daily Chartbook #138

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #138

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Feb 10
33
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Daily Chartbook #138

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. US oil production. "US oil production rose to its highest level since the early days of the pandemic in the seven days to Feb. 3".

Bloomberg


2. Financial situation. "35% of Americans say they are financially better off now than they were a year ago (same as January 2021); 50% say they are worse off than a year ago, which is highest share since 2009".

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Gallup via @lizannsonders

3. CPI forecast. "January CPI expected to rise 0.44%".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

4. Jobless claims. "Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 [which was above expectations] last week to 196,000. The four week moving average declined -7,500 to 189,250. Continuing claims increased 38,000 to 1,688,000...For the week, initial claims are now higher YoY, for the first time since December".

The Bonddad Blog

5. Wage tracker. "Pay growth for job switchers ticked down to 7.3% from 7.7% in December  (vs 8.5% in July). For job stayers, growth ticked up to 5.4% from 5.3% in Dec (vs 6.1% in June)".

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Atlanta Fed via @nicktimiraos

6. Downturn phase. "Morgan Stanley's cycle indicator is now indicating that we're within the downturn phase, encouraging defensive positioning".

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Morgan Stanley via @mayhem4markets

7. Different this time... "Stop worrying about the curve inversion, says Goldman. 'We believe this cycle is different, with an economy that can support a higher long run real rate than currently assumed.' If the economy stays robust, 'it will be hard to argue that the Fed has been severely restrictive.'"

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Goldman Sachs via @carlquintanilla

8. Deep(er) inversion. "The US 2-year yield exceeded the 10-year yield by the widest margin since the early 1980s, surpassing its December 2022 extremes".

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Bloomberg via @ashendenfinance

9. Treasury seasonality. "As always, seasonality is climate, not weather. Still, when you add price below resistance and below 200-day MA to unfavorable seasonality and a rising rate environment…It's not that bonds can't rally from here, it's that they have some proving to do".

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@jaykaeppel

10. Multi-asset volatility. "Since peaking in Oct, multi-asset volatility (i.e., stocks + bonds + currencies) is at its lowest level since Feb 2022. Doesn't feel like uncertainty is falling though...risk is to the upside here".

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@lizyoungstrat


11. Risk perception. "Citi macro risk index has crashed recently and has added fuel to the squeeze. Are investors becoming too complacent?"

TS Lombard via TME

12. Returns by time of day. "It's not surprising to find more buying than selling activity in the final two hours of the day in a bull market — and more selling than buying in a bear market".

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Yahoo Finance via @lanceroberts

13. Holding periods. "Average US stock holding periods fallen from 5 yrs to 10 months in recent decades. Has contributed to current 'pain-trade' of out-of-position investors. Retail is better placed, as 63% think in years or decades".

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@laidler_ben

14. Short-term options (I). "70% of equity notional traded on a daily basis is now options! 45% of SPX options expire in 6.5 hours or less, an all-time high".

Goldman Sachs via TME

15. Short-term options (II). "While we can't know exactly what's driving these trades, the general compression of vol and price action that seems "bounded" suggests these options are being sold to dealers as income generators rather than hedges. As the options decay into 0DTE, volume becomes two directional".

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@t1alpha

16. Active investment managers. "NAAIM Exposure 85, highest since early January 2022".

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NAAIM via @hmeisler

17. Funds’ exposure. "HF/systematic have closed equity shorts, but exposure is still below average. L/S and Risk control funds' equity exposure is depressed while Macro HFs are above their median levels".

Barclays via TME

18. Equity exposure. "Money managers have cut $300 billion of bearish equity bets and are now positioned more in line with historic norms. Investors are now the closest to neutral positioning on stocks than they've been since the second quarter of last year".

JPMorgan/Bloomberg via @lisaabramowicz1

19. AAII sentiment. "AAII [bulls] highest since Dec 2021. AAII [bears] lowest since Nov 2021. For the first time in 45 weeks, [bulls] > [bears]".

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@williedelwiche

20. Insiders. "Corporate insider buying is now at extremely low levels".

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@gameoftrades_

21. Tech flows. "The 1-month flows are generally more neutral than they were at the end of last year, but they’re not at levels that suggests a reversal".

JPMorgan via TME

22. Semis positioning. "Semis has seen de-grossing, but it’s been pretty similar on both sides, which has left the L/S ratio and net positioning relatively unchanged YTD, despite the YTD rally".

JPMorgan via TME

23. Sector short interest. "Short sellers continued to place wagers against consumer discretionary stocks in January, even as inflation appears to be cooling, while a bank focused on cryptocurrency leads the list of most-shorted U.S. stocks".

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@spglobal

24. Mega cap tech. "Short covering has pushed up the L/S ratio from very low levels to about the 16th %-tile as it has rallied YTD".

JPMorgan via TME

25. Q4 earnings (I). "The aggregate S&P 500 Q4 earnings missed estimates for the first time since the GFC".

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

26. Q4 earnings (II). "But the S&P 500 median earnings beat by an average amount".

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

27. Q4 earnings (III). "The aggregate tech sector missed estimates massively, driven by mega-cap companies".

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

28. Bottom-up EPS estimates. "Somehow, with higher wage costs and lower revenue projections, company earnings are still expected to grow in 2023 and 2024".

Liz Young

29. Earnings yield. "Earnings yield for US stocks is now close to turning negative versus the Fed funds rate for the first time since the tech bust".

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@tavicosta

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #138

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