Daily Chartbook #124

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Existing home sales (I). "Existing home sales dropped for the 11th straight month in December...leading to a record 34% drop year-over-year (worse than the worst drop during the Great Financial Crisis)".

2. Existing home sales (II). "That is the longest monthly streak of sales declines in history which dragged the Existing Home Sales SAAR down to 4.02mm, its lowest since Nov 2010 (below the worst month of the COVID lockdowns)".

3. Existing home sales (III). "The median existing home sale price is down 11% from its peak. After the last housing bubble top, prices fell 33%. The same decline today would only bring prices back to Feb '20 levels, a reflection of the mania in the last phase of the current bubble: a 40% increase in 2 years".

4. Existing home sales (IV). "Distribution of existing home sales by price".

5. Months' supply. "Inventories of homes for sale still only 2.9 months of sales — compared to 9.6 months at the onset of the 2007-2009 recession".

6. Household balance sheets. "Household balance sheets remain strong, but we expect that the saving rate will recover in 2023 as households slow their drawdown of excess savings".

7. Excess savings. "We estimate that households have drawn down about 35% of their excess savings so far and will have spent around 65% by end-2023".

8. Fed balance sheet. "The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level since October 2021 this week, down $476 billion from its peak in April 2022. Some perspective on how much the balance sheet expanded in 2020-21: it's still $4.3 trillion higher than where it was at the start of 2020".

9. Pensions. "More than a pinch for pensions: after starting 2022 with $1.3T, U.S. pensions lost 15.5% throughout year, giving up all bull-market gains from 2021…FoundationMark shows pensions now hold estimated $1.06T, (less than before pandemic began)".

10. Distressed credit. "Almost $175 billion of real estate credit is already distressed...about four times more than the next biggest industry".

11. GDP forecast. "BofA expects a mild US recession in H2 2023".

12. Commodities vs. inflation. "The YoY inflation push from global commodity prices has moderated, and this has begun to fuel global disinflation".

13. Disinflation outperformers (I). "Quality-growth sectors outperformed cyclicals during the 1980s disinflation period".

14. Disinflation outperformers (II). "In disinflation the winners are: Health Care, Tech, Comm. Services and Cons. Discretionary. The losers are: Energy, Industrials and Financials".

15. Disinflation vs. earnings. "Significant disinflation periods usually witness an earnings drawdown. Trailing EPS for S&P 500 had an average drawdown of 19% during the past disinflation cycle".

16. TLT levels. "TLT's trailing 50-day price returns is at a 2 sigma. These are truly unusual levels, should only occur infrequently, and therefore signal something important about market sentiment".

17. Volatility. "Volatility for stocks (blue), currencies (orange), and bonds (white) has receded over past few months … wasn’t case prior to that as currency and bond vol spiked to their COVID panic levels (VIX did not)".

18. Terminal rate vs. MOVE. "MOVE over Fed Terminal Rate proxy. If this chart is correct, MOVE needs to move up more brining more volatility into the rates market".

19. Market indicators. "Equity market indicators are leaning in favor of an early cycle turn emerging in 2024, but the group is yet far from decisive. Homebuilders are strongest while semis and transports appear to be struggling at the top of their downtrending ranges".

20. OpEx day. "Happy first OpEx of 2023! $2.7T of notional exposure rolls off today, with $1.1T of $SPX in the AM and $765B of single stock options in the PM!".

21. Short-dated options. "50% of $SPX options traded expire in 6.5 hours or less. A new record suggesting that every day is now lotto Friday".

22. Risk assets. "Largest inflow into risk-assets since mid2020".

23. NAAIM. Active managers have sharply increased their exposure to equities (to 65 from 38.8).

24. Emerging market inflows. "Largest inflow to EM equities since Feb'21"

25. Selling pressure. "The lower this indicator, the lesser the selling pressure in the market. Who’s left to sell? Hardly anyone. Max pain to the upside".

26. Bad =/= good. "The ‘bad data is good news for equities’ mantra seems over now in the US. .. This is starting to resemble a classic recession playbook, with investors selling equities to buy bonds .. In contrast, Europe appears to be in the sweet spot right now".

27. Net profit margins. "Analysts believe net profit margins for the S&P 500 will be higher going forward .. but currently they are on the decline".

28. Q4 earnings (I). With 11% of the S&P reported, 67% and 64% of companies have topped earnings and revenue estimates, respectively.

29. Q4 earnings (II). The blended earnings and revenue growth rates for the quarter thus far are -4.6% and 3.7%, respectively.

30. Margins pressure. And finally, “careful with optimism on earnings. Big pressure on margins still the risk”.

Have a great weekend!