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Daily Chartbook #120

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #120

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jan 14
26
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Daily Chartbook #120

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

As a reminder: Daily Chartbook will be off Monday, January 16.


1. Home sales forecast. "We expect home sales volume to trough in 2023H1".

Goldman Sachs via TME

2. Imports (I). "US import prices +0.4% in Dec 2022, first monthly increase since June".

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@gregdaco

3. Imports (II). "Still despite this one-month rise, the imported disinflationary trend remains strong".

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@gregdaco

4. Strong households. "Households across the income distribution continue to have a higher level of cash available than before the pandemic, and the speed with which households are running down their cash balances in recent quarters has been very slow".

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Apollo via @samro

5. Consumer sentiment. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US jumped from 59.7 to 64.6, the highest since April and well above expectations of 60.5.

Zero Hedge

6. Inflation expectations (I). One-year inflation expectations dropped to 4% (vs. 4.3% expected), the lowest outlook since April 2021. However, medium term (5-10 yrs) inflation expectations ticked up from 2.9% to 3%.

Zero Hedge

7. Inflation expectations (II). "The uncertainty around this forecast is extremely high".

Zero Hedge

8. Buying conditions. "Buying Conditions improved for all cohorts".

Zero Hedge

9. Deflation. "A whopping 59% of CPI components are now in outright deflation, a leap of 800bp in a single month .. the bond market got it right. Inflation is undershooting the Fed and consensus view".

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Fundstrat via @carlquintanilla

10. Interest expense. "The Interest Expense on US Public Debt rose to $775 billion over the past year, a record high. If it continues to increase at the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security".

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@charliebilello


11. Loan loss provisions. "Excluding covid shock, Big 4 banks' loan loss reserves are the highest in 10 years".

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@zerohedge

12. Consensus. "New consensus is Fed hikes 50bps in H1'23 then cuts 200bps next 18 months".

BofA via TME

13. S&P vs. CPI. Yesterday's 0.34% gain for the S&P 500 was the "smalles reaction to a CPI print since April".

Little Reaction | S&P 500's 0.34% gain is the smallest reaction to a CPI print since April
Bloomberg

14. US02Y. "The 2year Treasury yield has crossed under the Fed funds rate for the first time this rate hike cycle. This cross has an excellent track record of leading to easier policy".

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@ginamartinadams

15. Bond inflows. "Largest inflow to bond funds since Jul ‘21".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

16. JPM tactically bearish duration. "JPM says Treasuries appear significantly rich to fundamental drivers".

JPMorgan via TME

17. Credit fund inflows. "Largest inflow to credit funds since Jun'21".

BofA via TME

18. Ripple effect. "Steep moves in commodity prices often lead to a ripple effect in the market. Gold broke out, then silver, copper, and now we have a list of others already up double digits in the last 3 months. Energy & agricultural commodities are likely the next ones to move".

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@tavicosta

19. Emerging Market inflows. "Largest inflow to EM assets since Apr '22".

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BofA via @wallstjesus

20. Global stocks > US stocks. "Strategists are increasingly favoring European and Asian shares over US peers against the backdrop of higher rates".

US Stocks Lag Global Rally | Strategists expect global equities to outperform US stocks
Bloomberg

21. Momentum chasing. "CTA exposure has gone from "healthy" short to "healthy" long. Do we see them push even more longs? The problem with these strategies is that they tend to work poorly in non trending markets, and this market is stiill struggling to find a new trend".

Nomura via TME

22. Smart money. "Managed money is starting to get more bullish of gold as they both cover shorts and increase longs".

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@mayhem4markets

23. Margin expectations. "Margin expectations have fallen, record margins are no longer penciled in by analysts".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

24. Earnings revisions. Over the last 3 months, "energy was the only sector with upward revisions".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

25. ISM vs. EPS. "ISM shows -10% EPS priced-in".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

26. Q4 EPS. "For Q4 2022, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -3.9%. If -3.9% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported a year-over-year decline in earnings since Q3 2020 (-5.7%)".

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Fact Set via @mikezaccardi

27. Price targets. "S&P 500 weighted average price target ahead of earnings season is one of the highest over the past 11 years".

Goldman Sachs via TME

28. Seasonality. "January is the strongest month for the market during pre-election years". 2023 is a pre-election year.

Carson via TME

29. Swear count. And finally, “good job everyone”.

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@robinwigg

Have a great weekend!

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Daily Chartbook #120

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
AlphaPicks
Writes AlphaPicks on Wall Street
Jan 14

Great content as usual!

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