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Daily Chartbook #116

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #116

Catch up on the day in 28 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jan 10
26
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Daily Chartbook #116

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Global shipping. "The majority of global shipping rates have now normalised and lie within their historical range".

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@lvieweconomics

2. Forecast error. "Chart below shows broadly wrong consensus calls into & within US recessions from the late 60s. It's almost a perfect score. History repeating itself".

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@marketinterest

3. Most anticipated recession. "If the recession is so well anticipated as is post pandemic normalisation, shouldn’t we be looking through all of that to the recovery and refocus on structural growth stories once more? ".

Sanford Bernstein via TME

4. Used cars. "The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was down 14.9% from a year ago. This was the largest annualized decline in the series’ history. The non-adjusted price change in December was a decline of 1.9% compared to November".

Image
@zerohedge

5. Consumer expectations (I). "The NY Fed's survey of inflation expectations shows 1-year-ahead inflation expectations continued to decline in December, falling 0.2 pp to 5.0%, its lowest reading since July 2021".

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NY Fed via @nicktimiraos

6. Consumer expectations (II). "The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 34.9%".

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NY Fed via @samro

7. December CPI. "Ahead of US CPI on Thursday, here is the Cleveland Fed Nowcast".

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@mayhem4markets

8. Chinese equities. "Chinese stocks started the new year with a bang".

Chinese stocks have rebounded almost 50% from bottom
Bloomberg

9. RoW vs USA. "Rest of the World (RoW) is trading at a massive discount to US equities".

Image
@schuldensuehner

10. Fx vs. earnings. "Q3 conference calls mentioned FX as a major headwind. Since the start of Q4, the US Dollar index has fallen over 7%. Keep that in mind as Q4 earnings season ramps up in a couple of weeks".

Bespoke via TME


11. Dollar shorts. Hedge fund are most bearish on the US dollar since August 2021.

Hedge Funds Raise Dollar Shorts
Bloomberg

12. Junk bond inflows. "$JNK saw a $1.7B inflow last week as investors and traders discount the possibility of higher risk borrowers defaulting".

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@mayhem4markets

13. Highs over lows. "New highs > new lows last week for first time since August and only 3rd time since Nov 2021".

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@williedelwiche

14. Retail flows. Retail investor flows into single stocks flipped positive last week.

JPMorgan via TME

15. Sentiment vs. positioning. "The gap between Consumer Sentiment and Equity Exposure is the largest we have seen in the past 30 years".

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@williedelwiche via @marlin_capital

16. Main street vs. Wall Street. "Economic sentiment has come right down to meet investor sentiment. Main Street now agrees with Wall Street".

Topdown Charts via TME

17. Put option activity. There were 4 weeks in Q4 where traders spent +$40 billion on new put option purchases and sales.

WSJ

18. Multi-year declines (I). "Extended valuations tend to play a role in multi-year down markets... but we find that the detrended Bond/Equity yield ratio seems to give the best signal - but even this appears 'necessary but not sufficient'".

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@ianrharnett

19. Multi-year declines (II). "Extended market cycles (in age and scale) also yield multi-year declines... if we exclude the 'biological' pandemic bear market (short-lived as looser policy extended the cycle), the Bull market ending Jan-2022 lasted almost 13 years and saw a 5-fold rise in Equities".

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@ianrharnett

20. Multi-year declines (III). "A final word of warning... previous multi-year bear markets (other than 1913-14) saw the second year deliver larger losses than the first".

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@ianrharnett

21. Q4 earnings season (I). "By February 10th, companies representing 77% of S&P 500 market cap will have reported".

Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge

22. Q4 earnings season (II). "If consensus expectations for 4Q were to materialize, it would represent the weakest quarter of growth since 3Q 2020".

Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge

23. Earnings revisions (I). "The 3-month trend of S&P 500 FY2 EPS revision sentiment stands at -31%, the most negative reading outside of the 2008 and 2020 recessions".

Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge

24. Earnings revisions (II). Earnings revisions breadth is trending lower.

Morgan Stanley via TME

25. Earnings revisions (III). Of 100 S&P companies that have issued guidance for Q4, "65 have issued negative EPS guidance and 35 have issued positive EPS guidance".

01-sp-500-negative-and-positive-eps-preannouncements-q1-2018-to-q4-20222
Fact Set

26. Earnings revisions (IV). "Information Technology (-5) and Consumer Discretionary (-3) sectors have seen the largest decreases in the number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance".

02-number-of-sp-500-companies-with-q4-positive-and-negative-guidance
Fact Set

27. Earnings drivers. "Some 31% of survey participants expect cooling inflation to be the biggest positive driver for earnings this period, with slightly lower tallies for cost-cutting and supply-chain improvements".

Bloomberg

28. Earnings outlook. Investors are expecting an ugly first half for 2023.

Bloomberg

Thanks for reading!

***

MONDAY BONUS: Cheat sheet. Global markets week in review.

Courtesy of @fxmacroguy (link to Substack below)

fx:macro

Brings you up to speed on the relevant macro developments: central banks, economic data, sentiment, intermarket analysis. Every weekend. For traders, investors and everyone interested in what's going on in FX and macro.
By FXMacroGuy
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Daily Chartbook #116

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
AlphaPicks
Writes AlphaPicks on Wall Street
Jan 10Liked by Daily Chartbook

Love the daily content 📈📊

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