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Daily Chartbook #114

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #114

Catch up on the day in 29 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jan 6
31
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Daily Chartbook #114

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. US petroleum inventory levels. "US total commercial petroleum inventories fell by 3.1 MMbbl last week".

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@roryjohnston

2. National rents (I). "Rents nationally fall by 0.8% month-over-month (in December). This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and the third largest monthly decline in the history of our estimates, which start in January 2017".

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@c_barraud

3. National rents (II). 2022 was "the second fastest year of rent growth in our index’s history (going back to 2017)" but "nowhere close to the astronomical 17.6 percent increase in prices that we saw in 2021".

annualized rent growth 2022 12
Apartment List

4. National apartment demand. "Net demand for apartments ended in negative territory for calendar 2022".

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@jayparsons

5. Surprises. "The only area where data is surprising to the downside is Housing/RE".

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@camerondawson

6. Auto sales. "~13.7M vehicles sold in the US in 2022  (-8% YoY & lowest totals since 2011)".

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@thetranscript

7. Auto delinquencies. "Auto defaults are up 47bp since June '21 (trough)".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

8. Financial conditions. "Financial conditions remain much too easy for the Fed's liking".

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@wallstjesus

9. Mild recession. "BofA Economics team forecasts a mild recession starting 1Q23".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

10. Challenger cuts. Job cut announcements moved down in December, but the number of cuts (~44k) was the second highest of 2022 and +129% YoY.

Announced Job Cuts from January 2021 - December 2022. Report and data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Challenger Gray


11. ADP employment (I). Private businesses added 235k jobs in December, well above expectations of 150k.

Zero Hedge

12. ADP employment (II). Changes in private employment by sector.

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@gregdaco

13. Jobless claims. Initial claims rose by 205k (vs. 225k expected) while continuing claims ticked down slightly.

Zero Hedge

14. Balance of trade (I). The US trade deficit narrowed to $61.5 billion in November as both imports and exports fell by 6.5% and 2%, respectively.

Calculated Risk

15. Balance of trade (II). "The 20% one-month decline in the deficit was the single biggest drop in the US trade deficit on a percentage basis going back to the global financial crisis".

Zero Hedge

16. Global composite PMI. "Global private sector output fell at a slightly softer rate as the latest reading ticked up to 48.2 in December. However, the downturn in new orders was the fastest in over two-and-a-half years".

S&P Global

17. US Sector PMI. "Business activity declined in six out of seven US sectors…Technology was the exception…Financials remained by far the weakest".

S&P Global

18. US Services PMI. "Service providers signaled a sharp fall in business activity [in December] … Output levels declined further amid weak demand conditions and another monthly drop in new orders".

S&P Global

19. End of an era. "From $19 trillion to nothing. The last of the negative yielding debt is gone".

The Market Ear

20. AAII. "Everyone hopped into the neutral camp" as both AAII bulls and bears each fall by 5%.

AAII, @hmeisler

21. Heavy retail selling. The past week was "the third worst week of net selling in history".

JPMorgan via TME

22. Corporate insiders (I). "Insider sentiment…has dropped for six consecutive months".

WSJ

23. Corporate insiders (II). "Tech corporate insider buying is falling off a cliff".

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@gameoftrades_

24. Global value spreads. "Despite all the expensive stock carnage, barely a blip on the value spread".

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AQR via @mebfaber

25. Large growth vs value. "The relative performance swings between large cap Growth and Value stock indices have become much more pronounced since 2020. In the decade before, there were no instances of 3 standard deviation differentials. Over the last 3 years, we have had 3 such swings in each direction".

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DataTrek

26. Active fund performance. "Globally, only 35% of Active Funds outperformed in 2022".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

27. Small-cap value performance. "98% of small-cap value managers outperformed the Russell 2000 in 2022".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

28. Small-caps vs. CPI. "The Russell 2,000 small-cap index tends to outperform when inflation is falling".

Alpine Macro via Daily Shot

29. S&P vs. VIX. And finally, “in 2022, when VIX > 28.5, S&P gained 15%. When VIX < 28.5, S&P 500 lost 30%”.

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@williedelwiche

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #114

www.dailychartbook.com
1 Comment
Chris
Jan 6Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you. :)

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