Daily Chartbook #112

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Oil demand forecasts. "This is the forecast of global oil demand between now and 2050. Data from OPEC, Exxon and EIA. OPEC the least bullish of all".

2. LNG leaders. "The US tied Qatar as the world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas last year, marking a huge leap for the US, which only began exporting LNG from the lower-48 states in 2016".

3. No major elections. "2023 will be 1st of 21st century without general or presidential election in any G7 country".

4. Recession probability. "Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% probability that the US economy enters recession over the next 12 months".

5. Rate cut views. 42% agree rates will peak between 5-5.25%. "About 52% of individual traders are betting that the much longed-for Fed pivot will arrive sometime in 2023, while 54% of professional money managers expect it in 2024".

6. Spending drags. "Equity and Real Estate price fluctuations are the main drivers of changes in household wealth".

7. Excess savings. "Household excess savings are now below $1 trillion".

8. Economic surprise. "Economic surprise indices are again turning downward w/both labor & general indices putting in “lowest highs" since 2020".

9. US Manufacturing PMI. “The final print for S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI matched the flash print of 46.2 (down from the November 47.7 print),” the fastest contraction since May 2020 and “among the sharpest since 2009”.

10. Construction spending. "Construction spending beat estimates in November because nonresidential construction is surging. Private nonresidential construction rose 1.7% MoM, up 6 of the last 7 months".

11. Q4 GDP. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q4 GDP moved up to 3.9% from 3.7% on December 23.

12. High-grade inflows. "Short-term high-grade funds recorded inflows [last week] for the first time since April [2022]".

13. Long-term Treasury bonds. "$TLT took in a record amount of cash in 2022 despite record bad performance…+15.7b of inflows...-33% price change".

14. MOVE. "US Treasury bond market volatility is still elevated, despite some improvement".

15. Stocks vs. bonds (I). Investors see stocks and bonds decoupling in 2023.

16. Stocks vs. bonds (II). "The correlation between stock prices and bond yields has flipped into negative territory and could indicate a longer period of disruption for markets".

17. Risk aversion. "The put/call ratio’s 10-day moving average hit a record high last week amid increased risk aversion".

18. Insiders. "The Insider Transaction Ratio…remains in the bullish zone".

19. Tech outflows. "Investors pulled $18 billion from tech funds in 2022-most on record in Morningstar data going back to *1993*".

20. Equity sentiment. "Wall Street is bearish. This is bullish … Our Sell Side Indicator (SSI), which tracks the average recommended allocation to stocks by US sell-side strategists, declined 33bps to 53.0% in December amid a 6% sell-off in the S&P 500".

21. Inflation-friendly flows. "Investors continued to veer away from inflation-friendly funds, though TIPS saw small inflows the last week of 2022 along with energy funds".

22. Computers buying. "CTAs are still below extremely long equities, but the reversal from short to long has been brutal. Imagine this crowd start to sell again".

23. Timing the market. S&P 500 2022 performance excluding the best and worst 5 days.

24. Low dividend yield. "Roughly 16% of S&P 500 stocks have a dividend yield above 4%, the lowest level in 11 years".

25. Back-to-back. "Back-to-back annual losses are rare, but the odds of the bear market continuing remain elevated".

Average is uncommon. "To get back to even from last year, investors will need roughly a 25%ish return. The problem is that 8-10% average return years are not all that common".

27. Global earnings. "Global earnings expectations remain surprisingly resilient. In December, the Global Earnings Revision Ratio jumped from 0.59 to 0.82 on fewer downgrades".

28. S&P earnings revisions. Earnings downgrades have outpaced upgrades for the last 6 months.

29. Forward P/E ratio. And finally, the S&P 500 is "currently trading around the 25 year average".

Thanks for reading!

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