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Daily Chartbook #111

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #111

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Dec 24, 2022
25
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Daily Chartbook #111

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

Administrative note: As a reminder, Daily Chartbook will be off next week and back Tuesday, January 3.


1. New home sales (I). Sales of new homes jumped unexpectedly (again), increasing 5.8% in November (vs. -4.7% expected).

Zero Hedge

2. New home sales (II). However… "New home sales adjusted for home builder cancellation rates. Much different story second half of 2022 as buyers started canceling in droves".

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@rickpalaciosjr

3. Personal income & spending (I). "Americans' spending rose less than expected while income rose slightly more than expected (with real spending disappointingly unchanged MoM)".

Zero Hedge

4. Personal income & spending (II). "YoY Spending growth is at its slowest since Feb 2021".

Zero Hedge

5. Personal savings (I). "Personal savings rate ticked up in November to 2.4% but still remains incredibly low relative to history".

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@lizannsonders

6. Personal savings (II). "Americans, in the aggregate, are still sitting on a lot of savings built up during the pandemic, which could help support spending going forward".

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@bencasselman

7. Wages & salaries. "Govt worker wages are back to pre-covid levels; private workers are still about 1.5% higher than pre-covid".

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@zerohedge

8. PCE (I). Month-to-month change in headline and core PCE with topline contributions.

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@kathyjones

9. PCE (II). "November PCE inflation +5.5% y/y vs. +5.5% est. & +6.1% in prior month (rev up from +6%) … core PCE +4.7% vs. +4.6% est. & +5% prior".

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@lizannsonders

10. PCE (III). "There's some degree of progress in goods inflation, which is encouraging, but services continue to rise, up 0.4% m/m. This is not what the FOMC wants to see ahead of their next meeting".

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@mayhem4markets


11. Consumer sentiment. "The final headline UMich rose from November and the flash print, with expectations leading the way".

Zero Hedge

12. Inflation expectations (I). "The 1-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.6% flash to 4.4% final (from 4.9% in November)... the lowest since June 2021".

Zero Hedge

13. Inflation expectations (II). However, "inflation uncertainty remains extremely high".

Zero Hedge

14. Buying conditions. "Buying conditions improved very marginally but home-buying attitudes remain near multi-decade record lows".

Zero Hedge

15. Durable goods. "US Durable Goods Orders tumbled 2.1% MoM in preliminary November data (considerably worse than the 1.0% drop expected)….The biggest MoM drop since the COVID lockdowns and slowest YoY growth since Feb 2021".

Zero Hedge

16. Container throughput. "On a YoY basis, RWI/ISL index points to a weakening of global trade growth (volume) in 4Q".

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@c_barraud

17. S&P WACC. "One year ago, the weighted average cost of capital for S&P 500 firms equaled 4.1%, close to the lowest level in history. However, during the past 12 months the cost of capital for US firms surged by the largest amount in 40 years".

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Goldman Sachs via @gunjanjs

18. Margin debt. "Margin debt balances fell to $644 billion in November, the lowest level since July 2020".

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@gunjanjs

19. Credit fund flows. "Deteriorating flows trend to corporate bond funds".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

20. Equity outflows (I). Passive equity funds just experienced their biggest outflows on record.

BofA via TME

21. Equity outflows (II). As did value funds.

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

22. Most shorted. "Heavily shorted stock basket tracked by Goldman Sachs is having its worst month since April 2022 and March 2020".

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@lizannsonders

23. Asset manager positioning. "Asset managers' US equity positioning has moved into much more neutral territory over past weeks".

JPMorgan via TME

24. Equal- vs. cap-weighted. "It's unusual to see the equal-weighted S&P 500 index outperform the cap-weighted version for an extended period like it is now. The only similar analog is the Dotcom bust".

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@deanchristians

25. Volatility vs. strength. "Going back 5+ decades, few years have seen as many 1% daily swings as we have had in 2022 & none have seen fewer days with new highs > new lows. 2008 & 1974 were the most similar".

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@williedelwiche

26. Final week. "S&P 500 performance during the last week of the year hasn't historically been as strong as you might think".

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@bespokeinvest

27. Santa Claus rally returns. And finally, “if the S&P 500 finishes higher during this year’s Santa Claus Rally, it would mark the seventh consecutive period of positive returns”.

LPL Financial

Have a great weekend, happy holidays, and an even better New Year!

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