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Daily Chartbook #11

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #11

27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 2, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #11

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Fossil fuel dependence. Oil, gas, and coal account for 83% of today’s global energy.

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@patricia_energy

2. Surprisingly partisan renewables. Republican districts account for 86% of solar, wind, and battery capacity among the top 10 districts for each technology.

Bloomberg Elements

3. Surprisingly partisan renewables (2). Republican districts also dominate in terms of clean energy projects.

Bloomberg Elements

4. Dwindling stockpiles. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds the lowest amount of barrels since 1985.

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@hedgeyedj

5. Meanwhile, in Europe. “European natural gas and electricity prices are 5x-7x higher than US levels.”

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JPM via @carlquintanilla

6. Sticky inflation? There’s a mismatch between shorter- and longer-term inflation expectations.

Topdown Charts

7. Real funds rate. A deeply negative real Federal funds rate could lead to more aggressive interest rate hikes.

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@mayhem4markets

8. Worldwide slowdown. Global Manufacturing PMI is heading towards contraction territory.

S&P Global via Daily Shot

9. Global shipping costs. Benchmark ocean freight rates continue to fall sharply.

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@lizannsonders

10. US air travel costs. Domestic airfare is expected to drop 25% in August (from peak prices in May).

Domestic
Hopper

11. Spending on Services over Goods. Services inflation tends to be stickier than goods inflation.

@alessiourban via TME

12. Credit card debt. The current average household credit card debt of $8,353 is $986 above the 10-year average of $7,367.

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@mikeziccardi

13. Low obligations ratio. On the other hand, financial obligations as a percentage of disposable income remain historically low.

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@mikeziccardi

14. JOLTs. Job openings fell sharply by 605,000 to roughly 10.7 million in June, below expectations.

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@lizannsonders

15. Biggest* drop. This was the biggest monthly drop in job openings (outside of Covid-related March and April 2020) since the JOLTs series began.

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@lvieweconmics

16. Quits unchanged. Workers left their jobs in June at the same rate they did in May.

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@lizannsonders

17. Soft landing-esque. Despite the massive drop in openings, there are still nearly 2 jobs for every unemployed worker.

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@nick_bunker

18. Bigger picture. Here’s a more complete look at the JOLTs report.

Calculated Risk

19. Layoff talk. Companies have been mentioning layoffs much more recently.

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@michaelaarouet

20. Firings by sector. Here’s where those layoffs are happening.

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@nick_bunker

21. US10YR. The 10-year Treasury yield saw one of its biggest gains in 5 years today. It has dropped roughly 20% since mid-June highs.

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@johnauthers

22. Earnings growth stalls. With over 72% of companies reported, S&P earnings are “on pace for the first negative growth rate we've seen since Q4 2020”. They are currently down 3% YoY.

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@charliebilello

23. Average valuations. The S&P 500 is currently near its average year-end P/E ratio (since 1989) of 19.6.

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@charliebilello

24. Bearish equities. “Positioning remains bearish” according to Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank via Daily Shot

25. Free cash flow. Energy companies have a FCF yield of nearly 2.7x that of tech companies.

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@rbadvisors

26. Tech earnings. Earnings estimates for tech companies continue to decline rapidly.

Soc Gen via TME

27. Stock repurchases. And finally, here are where the biggest buybacks are happening.

Deutsche via TME

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