Daily Chartbook #109

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

Administrative note: Daily Chartbook will be off next week and back Tuesday, January 3.

1. US petroluem inventories. "BIG 11.6 MMbbl *draw* in US total petroleum stocks last week, reversing much of the previous week's super-sized ~14 MMbbl *build*".

2. Strategic reserves (I). "What canceling 140mb of SPR sales looks like. There are still some significant sales on the books for 2028-31, but inventories stabilize over the medium term".

3. Strategic reserves (II). "We just took out 1984: SPR down to Dec 1983 levels".

4. Existing home sales (I). Existing home sales fell for the 10th straight month, dropping 7.7% in November and 28% YoY. "This is the biggest YoY drop since Lehman and the longest streak of sales declines since 1999".

5. Existing home sales (II). The drop came “despite the fact that mortgage rates have now fallen for 5 straight weeks”.

6. Existing home sales (III). "The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $370,700, an increase of 3.5% from November 2021 ($358,200)".

7. Existing home sales (IV). "While sales volume collapsed, the months' supply did not increase. This tells us the existing home market is still brutally supply-constrained".

8. Recession odds. "Recession probability model from [NY Fed] has climbed beyond its 2020 peak (by narrow margin) and is now at its highest since GFC".

9. Leading indicator. "The 6-month rate of change of the LEI index is a very strong predictor of recessions historically, along with yield curve inversions".

10. Consumer confidence (I). Confidence "soared above expectations (108.3 vs 101.0 exp) to its highest in 8 months, led by a surge in both Expectations (from 76.7 to 82.4) and Present Situation (from 138.3 to 147.2). Expectations are at the highest since Jan 2022".

11. Consumer confidence (II). "Conference Board's labor market gauge improves in Dec to 35.8", a 3-month high.

12. Consumer confidence (III). "1 Year Inflation expectations drop to 6.7% from 7.1%, lowest since Sept 2021".

13. Consumer confidence (IV). "The Conference Board's sentiment remains notably decoupled from UMich's sentiment measure".

14. USD versus. "Here's an update on who likes the weaker US Dollar the most".

15. Breadth fail. The "% of S&P 500 members trading above 50d moving average has hit 90% twice this year, but in both instances, market has turned lower after".

16. ETF vs. single stock flows. "The passive index effect on the markets is strong … It's why the markets aren't down a LOT more this year".

17. Active ETF flows. "Active ETFs captured 14% of total net ETF flows this year, their highest take to date...Not bad considering they only make up 4% of assets".

18. Households hold. "Households and institutions were and remain overbought in stocks, even if some sell-off has occurred".

19. Oversold. "10-day advance/decline lines are now slightly oversold pretty much across the board for sectors".

20. Sector relative strength. "After a bounce in the middle of the year, Consumer Discretionary is back to lows for the year relative to the S&P.  At the same time, relative strength for Consumer Staples is hitting new highs. Note strength for Industrials as well".

21. Retailers. "Forward 12m P/E for S&P 1500 retailing group (blue) has fallen considerably over past couple years; forward EPS (orange) now joining decline and in firm downtrend this year".

22. Massive losses. As of yesterday morning, "the US stock market had lost $11.7 trillion in market cap from its 1/3/22 high".

23. More pessimism ahead? "We are far from the pessimism of March, June, or October according to NDR".

24. Margin accounts. Balances in margin accounts have a long way to go to reach GFC and Dotcom era levels.

25. Elevated VIX. "91% of trading days this year have seen VIX close > 20, highest % since 2009 and 4th-highest since inception of 'fear guage'".

26. Santa Claus Rallies. "When the Santa Claus Rally takes place, the year is up 10.5% on avg and higher 73.2%. When there is no SCR? Only 5.0% and 67%".

27. 2023 projection. "The average target of 22 strategists canvassed by Bloomberg has the S&P 500 ending next year at 4,078 points — about 7% higher than current levels".

28. EPS bullseye. And finally, “the sell side is poised to notch...the most accurate consensus forecast since 2014”.

Thanks for reading!