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Daily Chartbook #108

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #108

Catch up on the day in 26 charts

Daily Chartbook
Dec 21, 2022
15
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Daily Chartbook #108

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. Gas prices. "Gas prices, now at $3.12/gallon nationally according to AAA, have fallen every day since 11/9 and are now down 16 cents since the start of the year ($3.28)".

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@bespokeinvest

2. Oil positioning (I). "Investors sold petroleum for a fifth consecutive week but the pace of selling slowed as the balance of risks began to shift to the upside".

@jkempenergy via Zero Hedge

3. Oil positioning (II). "From a positioning perspective, however, the balance of risks has clearly tilted towards the upside, especially in crude oil".

@jkempenergy via Zero Hedge

4. Oil positioning (III). "... and bullish long positions outnumber bearish shorts by a ratio of just 1.95:1 (6th percentile)".

@jkempenergy via Zero Hedge

5. Housing starts & building permits (I). "While Housing Starts fell 0.5% MoM (better than the 1.8% drop expected)...forward-looking building permits collapsed 11.2% MoM (vs -2.1% exp). That is the biggest MoM drop since the peak of the COVID lockdowns".

Zero Hedge

6. Housing starts & building permits (II). "Housing Permits are down over 22% YoY - the biggest drop since 2009 (with single-family permits -29.7% YoY and multi-family down 10.7%)".

Zero Hedge

7. Record under construction. "Combined, there are 1.709 million units under construction. This ties last month as the all-time record number of units under construction".

Calculated Risk

8. Rent price growth. "Nationwide, rent prices were up by 8.8% year over year in October, the lowest rate of growth recorded since June 2021".

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@c_barraud

9. Bottlenecks improving. "Goldman's average bottleneck score at the start of December is 3.0 - down significantly from the Dec/Jan peak and continuing the trend of improved supply chains on a y/y basis".

Goldman Sachs via TME

10. Q4 GDP. "The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q4 2022 was revised to 2.7%, down marginally from the prior forecast of 2.8%".

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@calebfranzen


11. Recession odds. "The odds of a downturn have climbed from 65% last month and to more than double what they were six months ago".

Bloomberg Open

12. Santa season. "Yesterday's decline left the S&P 500 down 6.4% month-to-date in price terms, which puts December 2022 on track for the second-worst “Santa season” since the index began ticking in 1957".

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@spdjindices via @samro

13. Yen vs. USD. "The dollar has declined more than 11% against the yen over past two months—largest such decline since *December 2008*".

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Bespoke via @gunjanjs

14. Gold interest. "Gold open interest at the Comex has slumped as prices have risen".

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@mayhem4markets

15. Gold covering. "This suggests shorts and hedgers are covering as we also see managed money going long(er)".

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@mayhem4markets

16. Bonds vs. pauses. "Historically, core bonds have performed well during Fed rate hike pauses".

LPL Research

17. REITs vs. pauses. "REITs returns have an average peak of 32.3% within 18 months following a Fed pause".

Morgan Stanley via TME

18. Equity factors. "Defensive & dividend strategies have offered relative shelter MTD, dominating SPDJIndices global factors; S&P 500 low volatility has captured < 1/2 benchmark’s losses, outperforming by 3.7% MTD; high beta is relative laggard both in U.S. and globally".

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@lizannsonders

19. Investor flows (I). "Flows into global/broad equity funds have picked back up (global funds in particular have seen share of inflows over past month jump to 25%) ... government bond funds continue to take in steady amount after reaching a low near end of November".

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@lizannsonders

20. Investor flows (II). "In sector-specific equity flows, outflows continued in Energy and Financials. Consumer Staples and Healthcare continue to see monthly inflows".

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@dataarbor

21. Weekly flows. "Last week (where S&P 500 was -2.1%), clients were net buyers of US equities ($2.8B) for the sixth straight week. But after five weeks of single stock inflows, buying was entirely ETF-driven (biggest week of ETF inflows since 2017)".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

22. Talk vs. action. Widespread negative sentiment has yet to be reflected in portfolio allocations.

@topdowncharts (Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm)

23. Buybacks (I). "We estimate Monday as the start of the final blackout window of the year with ~33% currently in their closed window. By the end of the week, we estimate ~54% of the S&P 500 will be in blackout".

Goldman Sachs via TME

24. Buybacks (II). "S&P 500 buybacks (rolling 4Q sum) in 3Q22 were $982 billion, down from 2Q22’s record >$1 trillion ... stil looking top heavy with top 20 companies accounting for 49% of overall buybacks".

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@lizannsonders

25. Buybacks (III). "Corp. client buybacks were a steady % of mkt. cap most of ‘22 and below ’19 levels".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

26. Stock pickers. And finally, "about 55% of actively managed large-cap mutual funds are on pace to beat their benchmarks this year".

WSJ

Thanks for reading!

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Daily Chartbook #108

www.dailychartbook.com
2 Comments
Alex K
Dec 21, 2022Liked by Daily Chartbook

Thank you for the free daily posts.

It takes a considerable amount of effort to put these charts together everyday.

Great content as always :)

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