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Daily Chartbook #106

www.dailychartbook.com

Daily Chartbook #106

Catch up on the day in 27 charts

Daily Chartbook
Dec 17, 2022
21
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Daily Chartbook #106

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. 2023 oil prices. "The first half of 2023 could see an oversupply of crude and further inventory builds...With the possibility of large supply deficits in the second half of 2023".

Bernstein via TME

2. Retail sales vs. oil prices. "As retail sales decline, so will oil prices".

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@lanceroberts

3. Global freight. "Global container freight rates moved down to their lowest levels since September 2020 this week, 81% below peak 2021 prices".

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@charliebilello

4. Undershooting expectations. "Global inflation data are now undershooting expectations...this week’s second consecutive US CPI miss punctuates a broader negative swing in global inflation surprises over the last few months".

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Goldman Sachs via @carlquintanilla

5. Food prices. "Fertilizer prices peaked in late March and are down 45% since, now at the lowest levels since June 2021," which is positive news for food prices.

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@charliebilello

6. US pessimism. "Roughly two-thirds say the nation’s economic trajectory is headed in the wrong direction". However, note that sentiment did improve from October to December.

WSJ

7. US composite PMI (I). "US private sector ends year in stronger downturn as demand weakness and price pressures bite".

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S&P Global via @samro

8. US composite PMI (II). "December saw the largest monthly cooling of firms’ input cost inflation seen in the 13 year history of the SP Global PMI US survey barring only the lockdown related slump in April 2020. This could have a big impact on #CPI #inflation in the coming months".

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@williamsonchris

9. CPI forecast. "We now forecast core CPI to fall to 2.8% y/y in 4Q 2023, down from 3.2% previously".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

10. Main street. "Main St finally outperformed Wall St significantly in 2022".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi


11. TLT vs. SPY. TLT 0.00 is on pace to outperform SPY 0.00 for the 5th straight week, "the longest winning streak since March of 2020".

ETFs Trackings Stocks and Treasuries Have Diverged | SPY drops while TLT gains
Bloomberg

12. Stocks vs. bonds. "The stock & bond rolling 3-month correlation is near the highest level of the past five years".

Bespoke via TME

13. Equity inflows. Equity funds saw weekly inflows totaling $20.7 billion.

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BofA via @wallstjesus

14. No capitulation. Zooming out, equity fund flows remain elevated.

Goldman Sachs via Isabelnet

15. Record value inflows. "Largest inflow to US equity value funds ever".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

16. Tax loss selling? "Largest outflow from active equities since Dec’21 ... Largest inflow to passive equities since Dec’21".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

17. Equity put/call. "The ratio of equity puts (bearish bets) to calls (bullish bets) over the last 30 trading days has only been this high a few times in the past: April 2008 and Oct/Nov 2008".

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@charliebilello

18. Index put/call. "Yesterday's Index put/call ratio 1.40, highest since the day after the CPI print in November".

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@hmeisler

19. Homebuilding stocks. "Homebuilding Industry Index surged relative to S&P 500 lately; ratio now at its highest in a year ".

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@lizannsonders

20. Small caps vs. large caps. "Small caps are trading at a big discount to large caps. Haven't seen this sort of discount since the tech bubble".

BofA via TME

21. S&P valuation. The S&P 500's P/E "multiple is still higher than where it was at prior major bear market troughs".

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@lizannsonders

22. US vs. Rest of World valuations. "US equities still do not look cheap despite the market sell-off".

@topdowncharts via Isabelnet

23. CY 2022 growth. "Analysts predict the $SPX will report Y/Y earnings growth of 5.1% and revenue growth of 10.4% in CY 2022".

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@factset

24. Monthly returns. "January is not the strongest month of the year for the S&P 500 (positive total returns >60% of the time since 1936)".

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BofA via @mikezaccardi

25. SPX scenarios (I). "Should the economy slip into a “soft landing” or mild recession and valuations revert to the longer-term median of 15x earnings, such would imply a level of 3100".

Real Investment Advice via Zero Hedge

26. SPX scenarios (II). "However, in a “deep recession” scenario, we expect a valuation and an earnings reversion (15x valuations on earnings of $160/share). Such would imply a price target of 2400 or a decline of roughly another 40% from current levels".

Real Investment Advice via Zero Hedge

27. The wrong kind of record. And finally, the S&P 500 is "on pace for a record number of 1%+ declines to close out a trading week" in 2022.

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@bespokeinvest

Have a great weekend!

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