Daily Chartbook #100

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. WTI vs. CPI. "WTI crude at $72/barrel is now unchanged versus a year ago, amazing given where crude has traded this year. This is very good news for US inflation, but also warns of a looming recession".

2. Retail inventories. "Breaking retail inventories down by sector, motor vehicles make up largest component and are still below pre-pandemic peak (chip shortage still an issue)".

3. Retail sales ex auto forecast. "The BAC card data inform our estimate of a 0.6% m/m drop in retail sales ex autos in Nov".

4. Credit card use. "Households do not appear to be increasing their credit card utilization rates (the % of their limits they run up to) at a fast rate".

5. Credit card rates. "The APR on the average credit card just hit a record 19.40%".

6. Jobless claims (I). Initial jobless claims ticked up to 230k while continuing claims jumped for the 8th straight week to the highest since February (1.671 million).

7. Jobless claims (II). "Actual (unadjusted) initial claims rose in every single state in the past week except Tennessee".

8. Wage Growth Tracker (I). "Hourly wage growth rose 6.4% from a year earlier (unchanged from October) for all workers, but ticked up for job switchers—8.1% from 7.6%".

9. Wage Growth Tracker (II). "US workers who switched jobs received pay increases of 7.7% over the last year vs. 5.5% for those who stayed at their jobs. With data going back to 1997, this is the widest gap we've ever seen".

10. After the first cut… "After the first rate cut, the S&P 500 fell in all but one of the previous easing cycles. On average, the index dropped 24% before finding a bottom".

11. No cuts in 2023. "Goldman’s economists do not expect a Central Bank pivot. Expect no rate cuts before 2024".

12. Fed vs. USD. "The hawkishness of the Fed remains the single most important driver of the USD".

13. USD vs. equities. "The trough for the stock market has tended to come almost exactly at the dollar’s peak".

14. Deep inversion. "US yield curve is now most inverted in 40 years - US 2s/10s yield spread at -84bps".

15. SPX dividend yield vs. US10Y yield. "Spread between S&P 500 dividend yield and 10-year U.S. Treasury remains deeply negative (relative to history) but has narrowed sharply over past couple months".

16. Commodity prices. "Another new low for commodity price growth".

17. Computers to sell. "In a flat market over the coming month there is $23bn to sell and in a 'down big' market (here defined as a 2.5 sigma move) they need to sell $155bn".

18. Financials heavy net selling. Hedge funds "sold Financials for the 5th straight session, driven by short sales outpacing long buys 9 to 1. In cumulative $ terms, the recent net selling in US Financials is the largest over any 5-day period in more than 5 years".

19. Equities net selling. "Our PB book was net sold for 7th consecutive trading session yesterday and represented the largest net selling in 4 months driven by shorts relative to long sales: 7.5 to 1".

20. Most-shorted. Goldman's basket of most-shorted stocks "has wiped out all gains relative to S&P 500 since April 2020".

21. Super-rich investors. The most bullish sectors, according to 50 "super-rich" UBS clients.

22. NAAIM. Active manager exposure moved down to 55.7 from 64.4.

23. Equity put/call ratio. "Another spike to a new high for the CBOE equity put/call ratio".

24. Composite put/call ratio. "Composite (not equity-only) U.S. put/call ratio spiked yesterday to highest since December 2018 … now in the vicinity of spikes in March 2020, August 2015, and early/late 2007".

25. Short-term options. "The 0DTE options continue to increase".

26. Cheatsheet. "The disinflation trades in one chart".

27. 2023 pessimist. And finally, “39% of survey respondents are expecting a negative return of more than 10% for the S&P 500 in 2023”.

Thanks for reading!