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Daily Chartbook #10

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Daily Chartbook #10

32 charts

Daily Chartbook
Aug 2, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #10

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.


1. China PMI contraction. The week started with concerning manufacturing PMI numbers coming out of China.

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@menthorqpro

2. Oil promises. Saudia Arabia claims it can produce 12 million barrels per day. Its August target is 11 million, a level it “has only sustained for eight weeks in the past.”

Javier Blas

3. Stateside (lack of) revinvestment. The last time oil was at +$100 per barrel, XOM 0.00 and CVX 0.00 were reinvesting $4-5 for every dividend dollar paid out. That number is down to ~$1.

Bloomberg Elements

4. Consumption. US distillate consumption—the most cyclically sensitive part of the oil market—is decelerating along with manufacturing activity.

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@jkempenergy

5. Switching to housing. The housing market is losing steam.

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@lizannsonders

6. Slowing price growth. The median sales price of homes in the US is growing at the slowest rate since August 2020.

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@charliebliello

7. Price cuts. Home sellers are reducing prices at the fastest rate since (at least) 2015. The average drop over the last 4 weeks was 7.5%.

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@charliebilello

8. Much needed relief. "For the first time since 2020, prospective buyers expect housing availability to improve".

Eyes on Housing

9. Construction spending. June construction spending fell 1.1%, the largest monthly decline since April 2020.

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@uscensusbureau

10. Tight personal finances. According to CNBC, 61% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck. That number was 58% in May and 55% one year ago.

CNBC

11. Financial conditions. Meanwhile, Goldman’s Financial Conditions eased over the last week mostly due to the rally in stocks, which could enable a more aggressive Fed.

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@samro

12. Business sentiment. The ratio of optimistic language vs. pessimistic language among US companies is skewed heavily toward pessimism.

BoA via Daily Shot

13. Don’t tell that to Goldman. Goldman Sachs thinks consensus estimates for 2023 growth are too conservative.

GS via TME

14. Atlanta Fed Q3. On Friday the GDPNow real GDP growth estimate for Q3 was 2.1%. It’s now down to 1.3%.

Atlanta Fed

15. US Manufacturing PMI. The latest readings revealed the weakest growth in 2 years.

SP Global

16. Prices paid. ISM Manufacturing Prices paid fell off a cliff to their lowest level since August 2020, suggesting easing inflation.

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@teconomics

17. Employment & New Orders. Both New Orders and Employment are contracting.

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@lizannsonders

18. Hmmm. “The last 4 times the spread between New Orders and Inventories in the ISM Manufacturing Index was this negative, the US was already in a recession.”

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@charliebilello

19. July asset class overview. US stocks were the best-performing asset in July.

The Capital Spectator

20. Buying the rally. Retail investors are purchasing popular tech stocks at the highest level since 2014.

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WSJ

21. Beat & rally. Stocks reporting better than expected numbers are enjoying the largest post-earnings bump since Q3 2019.

Jeffries via TME

22. Predictable. The decline in earnings and sales surprises has been drastic.

Mizuho via TME

23. Discretionary pain. Not all have reported, but Discretionary stocks have seen the worst earnings surprises by far.

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@mikezaccardi

24. But… “Consumer discretionary has the highest probability of outperformance six months after a technical recession”…

Denise Chisholm, Fidelity Investments via Daily Shot

25. And… “Especially after a significant sell-off”.

Denise Chisholm, Fidelity Investments via Daily Shot

26. 2023 growth profiles. Discretionary is also set to outpace the S&P in earnings growth next year.

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@mikezaccardi

27. Bears. Overall short interest is nearly at 2-year highs.

GS via TME

28. Remember those tech-buying retail investors? US Information Technology stocks are heavily shorted.

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@zerohedge

29. Reminder: bear market rallies can be ruthless. “During the 5 major bear markets (i.e. 40%+ drawdowns) in the S&P500 since 1929, on average we have seen 5 ‘bear market rallies’ with an average return of 18% over a 2 month period.”

JPM via TME

30. “Don’t Fight the Fed”. S&P 500 investors are buying higher interest rates?

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@michaelaarouet

31. Typically weak Q3. History suggests the latest rally won’t last.

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@ryandetrick

32. “Wake me up when September ends”. And finally, on average over the past 25 years, August-September are the worst months for the S&P 500.

Bloomberg

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