Daily Chartbook #6
Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. Nord Stream. Yesterday Russia announced it would reduce flows of natural gas to Germany from 40% to 20%. Those effects took place today while sustained prices are already at record highs.
2. European energy prices. European natural gas prices jumped as high as 21.5% with electricity prices in Germany and France surged to a record.
3. Switching to housing. New home sales missed estimates, dropping 8.1% to the lowest since June 2020.
4. Price slows. Home price growth is decelerating.
5. Price drops. And the median new home sales price dropped by 9.5% MoM (to $402,400)—the largest decline since 2014.
6. But… “After adjusting for inflation, US Home prices have never been higher.”
7. However, this is not a repeat. The “serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble”. It “peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic” and is now nearly back down to pre-pandemic levels.
8. Zero. There are no countries with an inflation rate at or below 2%.
9. Inflation vs… Here’s how inflation has stacked up against US stocks, bonds, and housing by decade.
10. “What do you do?” A record number of workers have at least 2 full-time jobs.
11. “How do you feel?” Let’s talk sentiment. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped for the 3rd month in a row. Here it is paired with Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
12. Growth slowdown ahead? The drop in Consumer Confidence was driven by a sharp drop in the Present Situation Index, suggesting a growth slowdown has already begun.
13. Consumer vs. Fintwit. The chart shows Twitter sentiment vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment—who's got it right?
14. In general. The average percentile of sentiment indicators is down to mid-2020 levels.
15. Global slowdown. The International Monetary Fund cut its global GDP growth forecast for 2022 & 2023 for the 3rd straight time due to a “gloomy and more uncertain” economic outlook. “Global economic expansion will likely slow to 3.2% this year, less than the 3.6% forecast by the fund in April and the 4.4% seen in January”.
16. “Gloomy” by country. Here are the IMF’s growth projections around the world.
17. Bad (but not shocking) surprise. On Sunday we noted economic surprises had been recently trending positively. That’s no longer the case according to Goldman’s index.
18. So you’re saying there’s a chance. Speaking of surprises, the market is expecting a 75 bps hike tomorrow but there’s still a chance of a more aggressive move by the Fed.
19. The Powell Indicator. “Earlier in the year when the yield curve started to invert, Powell just made up a fancy new indicator to dodge tricky questions. The 18m forward 3m yield versus the prevailing 3m yield. It was only a matter of time: The Powell Yield Curve Indicator has just inverted, too!”
20. Yawn. Moving over to equities, yesterday’s trading volume was exceptionally weak as everyone awaits Powell & Co.’s next move tomorrow as well as GDP numbers on Thursday
21. Is this the “worst” crash? Below are the major drawdowns since 2013 including the current one, where, “after controlling for length, we are currently experiencing the most severe crash of the past decade”.
22. PMI and EPS. We’ve covered the decline in manufacturing activity over the last several days. “Sub-45 tends to be the recessionary level for PMIs, and on average when PMI is sub-45, you see a 12% earnings decline (EPS data since 1990)”.
23. Internation S&P (1). More international exposure meant higher earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2 (despite a strong US dollar).
24. International S&P (2). It also meant higher revenue growth compared to S&P 500 companies with more domestic exposure.
25. Profit margins outlook. Analysts expect profit margins to bounce back in the second half of the year.
26. The artist formerly known as FAAMG. And finally, with Big Tech reporting this week, here’s how the biggest stocks (these 5 companies = 23% of S&P 500 market cap) have performed over the last year.