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Daily Chartbook #3

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Daily Chartbook #3

21 charts

Daily Chartbook
Jul 22, 2022
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Daily Chartbook #3

www.dailychartbook.com

Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

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1. Consumer sentiment vs. unemployment. There’s a big gap between record low consumer sentiment and historically low unemployment. Which one gives?

The Daily Shot

2. Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims rose to an 8-month high. The 4-week average for initial claims is now 40% above its lows. According to The Bonddad, “Typically (not always!) it has risen by 15% or more over its low before a recession has begun.”


3. Philly Fed. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined for the 4th straight month with its second consecutive month of contraction (reading below 0).

TE

4. Forecasting orders. New orders took a particularly sharp drop which doesn’t bode well for future activity.

TE

5. How are the waters? Business Conditions in the region dropped 18.6 points to levels we haven’t seen since the early 90s.

TE

6. Forward-looking indicators. The business outlook for the next 6 months has crumbled.

Twitter avatar for @pboockvar
Peter Boockvar @pboockvar
The 6 month business outlook in the Philly mfr'g index fell to the lowest since Sister Sledge was singing We Are Family.
Image
1:07 PM ∙ Jul 21, 2022
82Likes12Retweets

7. Not alone. With outlooks like that, businesses are cutting back on investments. Here’s a look at the 6-month CAPEX plans for all of the Fed’s regional manufacturing surveys. The Philly Fed CAPEX plans hit a 9-year low this month.

Image
@carlquintanilla

8. Why so serious? It’s not for a lack of cash. Businesses surveyed by Philly Fed have plenty of that.

Image
@carlquintanilla

9. Nord Stream. Russia reopened the natural gas pipeline to Europe. It’s currently running at 40% which is well below historic run rates.

Image
@menthorqpro

10. Gas prices win. In the US, high prices at the pump have drivers keeping off the road. Demand has dropped to just above 2020 levels (very weak).

The Daily Shot

11. Fuel inventories. US inventory levels for crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks are rising but still remain historically low.

The Daily Shot

12. Earnings downgrades. Those resilient earnings we talked about yesterday are under pressure. Downgrades for US corporate earnings have picked up.

The Daily Shot

13. Could it already be priced in? Either way — as of Wednesday, 72% of SPY 0.00 companies that had reported beat profit estimates, which is in line with historic norms (but below the 80% of the last 2 years).

ZeroHedge

14. In any case… As the chart below illustrates, earnings are quite resilient.

LPL Research

15. Record shorts. “Smart money” has never been shorter US equities.

CFTC via TME

16. Short where? Here are the sectors receiving the most selling pressure.

The Daily Shot

17. Short covering. All those shorts helped propel the latest rally in stocks.

The Daily Shot

18. Short crowds. These were the most shorted stocks from last week.

JPM via TME

19. Dividend safety. Over the last week 28 SPY 0.00 companies announced dividends in line with previous payments. Nine companies increased dividend payouts. No companies cut or suspended dividends.

JPM via TME

20. The Pelosi Effect. Semiconductors have had a rough year, falling ~28% compared to the S&P’s ~17%. It might have something to do with a bill Nancy Pelosi is championing that will provide a $52B boost to the industry.

Chip stocks rally 18% since hitting an early July low


21. Cashing in on the Pelosi Effect. Her husband, Paul Pelosi, purchased millions worth of Nvidia—a semis company—in June ahead of the vote on the bill she has been pushing.

Twitter avatar for @unusual_whales
unusual_whales @unusual_whales
Watch this. Reporter: "Has your husband ever made a stock purchase or sale based on info received from you?" Pelosi: "No, absolutely not." The Pelosi’s recently bought shares in Nvidia, $NVDA, worth millions. Nancy Pelosi backs the CHIPS Plus bill, a $52B semiconductor bill.
3:40 PM ∙ Jul 21, 2022
10,983Likes3,068Retweets

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