Daily Chartbook #9
Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.
1. O&G industry investment (or lack thereof). Exxon Mobil XOM 0.00%↑ and Chevron CVX 0.00%↑ reported record profits today. Here’s a telling slide from Exxon’s presentation.
2. Subsiding snarls. Supply-chain constraints are easing.
3. Climate change. Which countries are worried about climate change, and how much?
4. Growth & CO2. How have CO2 emissions been affected by rapid economic growth?
5. A refreshing response to yesterday’s ‘desire to work’ chart. Here’s the labor force participation rate for adults (16+) with a disability.
6. GDP. Here’s a better visualization of the contributors to yesterday’s GDP report.
7. Atlanta Fed. The Atlanta Fed updated its initial GDPNow model and expects real GDP growth of 2.1% in Q3.
8. Why no recession? The NBER needs to see widespread declines across these indicators to make the call…
9. Consumer sentiment. The U Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose marginally to 51.5 from 51.1, but Consumer Expectations fell to their worst level since 2009 (but if you ask Zero Hedge they’ll tell you it’s at its lowest since 1980).
10. Inflation expectations. One- and five-year inflation expectations ticked down.
11. Consumer vs. Market. Here’s what consumers think against what the market is pricing.
12. PCE. Here are the contributors to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures, which rose 6.8% in June.
13. Digging deeper into PCE. The biggest sub-component contributors to the increase in June PCE.
14. Wage growth slows. “Private wages rose 11.2%, down from 11.9% in May and lowest since March 2021. Government wages rose 4.8%, down from 5.4% and the lowest since Mar 2021”.
15. And the Employment Cost Index is decelerating. Costs are still rising but at a slower pace.
16. Personal savings. The Personal Savings Rate is down to its lowest since August 2008 at 5.1%.
17. Fat piggy banks. But consumers still have +$2 trillion in excess savings to help weather the storm.
18. Shifting to equities. The 7-day period ending Wednesday represented the first week of positive fund flows since early June.
19. Activity and growth. Lower activity should mean lower earnings growth.
20. 2023 earnings. This is being reflected in 2023 earnings estimates.
21. Earnings reactions. The response to earnings misses so far this season has been the softest on record.
22. Speaking of misses. Here’s a breakdown of earnings beats & misses by sector.
23. Q2 earnings growth. Energy…
24. Q2 revenues. Here’s a look at companies that beat and missed on the top line.
25. Q2 revenue growth. Again, energy…
26. Recession multiples. These are S&P 500 multiples through multiple recessions with high inflationary periods highlighted.
27. Current multiples. Current S&P 500 multiples were near long-term averages following the sell-off and before this latest rally.
28. Bullish indicator. Yesterday over 55% of stocks closed at 20-day highs. The last 2 times this occurred proved to be good times to buy stocks.
29. Strong July. Stocks had their best month of the year in July.
30. Global bonds too. The market has focused its shift from inflation to recession, pushing global bonds to their best month since November 2020.
31. Meta out. Big Tech reported mixed (but overall better-than-expected earnings) this week. Facebook Meta’s miss on the top and bottom lines had the most damaging effect as the social media giant was knocked off the top 10 most valuable companies in the US.
32. Upcoming earnings. And finally, here’s a look at next week’s most notable earnings.
Have a nice weekend!